The AI Data Center Buildout

Big-Four Hyperscaler Capex

Cash capital spending by Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, the demand signal every other layer of this sector trades on. Combined spend roughly doubled between 2023 and 2025 to about $376B, and that excludes finance leases, so the true figure is higher still.

Capex as a Share of Operating Cash Flow

How strained the tenants are. Amazon now reinvests nearly all of its operating cash flow, and the group has shifted from comfortably self-funded (30 to 50 percent) toward levels where external financing and finance leases carry more of the buildout.

NVIDIA Data Center Revenue

The cleanest public confirmation that committed capex is converting into deployed AI infrastructure. Gear orders, construction, and power demand all follow this line with a lag of quarters.

North America Under Construction

Primary-market capacity under construction peaked at 6,350 MW at year-end 2024 and eased to 5,994 MW at year-end 2025, the first decline since 2020, as permitting and power delivery stretched timelines. Most of the pipeline remains preleased.

AI Megaprojects

The flagship campuses, from Stargate to Colossus. Claimed gigawatts and dollar figures are sponsor statements that mix ambition with contracted spend; the status column is the part to watch.
ProjectSponsorsClaimed scale
StargateOpenAI, Oracle, SoftBank, CrusoeUp to $500B over four years; ~10 GW ambition; Abilene planned at ~1.2 GW
HyperionMeta~2 GW initially, scaling toward 5 GW over several years
PrometheusMeta~1 GW cluster
ColossusxAI100,000 GPUs initially, expanded past 200,000; Colossus 2 targeting ~1M
FairwaterMicrosoftDescribed by Microsoft as its most powerful AI datacenter; multi-site program
Project RainierAmazon (for Anthropic)~2.2 GW campus ambition; hundreds of thousands of Trainium chips

Neocloud Scorecard

The AI-specialized GPU clouds that anchor much of the new leased capacity. Their contract backlogs are enormous relative to revenue, which is either the sector's growth runway or its credit risk, depending on how AI demand develops.
CompanyRevenueContracted backlog
CoreWeave (CRWV)$1.9B (2024) to $5.1B (2025); $2.1B in Q1 2026Revenue backlog above $55B reported in late 2025 after OpenAI and Meta deals
Nebius (NBIS)$0.5B (2025); $0.4B in Q1 2026, roughly tripling year over yearMicrosoft contract of up to roughly $19B (2025) plus other multi-year deals
Crusoe (private)Private; not disclosedMulti-gigawatt development pipeline across Texas and the Midwest
Lambda (private)Private; not disclosedMulti-billion dollar Microsoft agreement announced in 2025
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AI Data Center Buildout: Capex & Capacity (2026) | Sterling