Vaccine Market Share by Company
Vaccines at a Glance
Top Vaccine Franchises, 2025
Vaccine-Attributable Revenue by Company, 2025
2025 Sales by Platform
Vaccines Public-Equity Universe by Archetype
Incumbents
The four diversified vaccines P&Ls. Most branded dollars still sit here.
mRNA platforms
COVID residual plus RSV and flu. Pipeline option-value is now oncology after CMV and norovirus misses.
Flu and protein specialists
Seqirus is the number-two flu manufacturer. Novavax is Nuvaxovid plus Matrix-M, with 2026 revenue collapsing off APA settlements.
Regional, travel, biodefense
Japan/dengue (Takeda), mpox and chikungunya (Bavarian, Valneva), anthrax stockpile (Emergent). Different buyer, different cycle.
Infant RSV adjacency
AstraZeneca co-commercializes Beyfortus with Sanofi. Dual-homed on GLP-1.
China commercial
Zhifei is the cautionary tale for tender-market concentration after the Gardasil destock.
Supply chain
Sterile fill-finish (Thermo Fisher), elastomer components (West), mRNA/LNP CDMO (Lonza). Shared calendar with GLP-1 pens.
Volume manufacturers (private)
Dose volume, not branded P&L. Serum Institute is the Gavi/UNICEF backbone. Bharat is the second India name.
End-to-End Vaccine Stack
Antigen / drug substance
Lipids and adjuvants
Fill-finish
Components
Brand
Buyer
Use case
Sector Milestones, 2020 to 2026
FDA EUA for Comirnaty (Pfizer/BioNTech) and Spikevax (Moderna)
mRNA vaccines enter commercial use. The APA era starts.
Comirnaty receives full US BLA, first COVID vaccine
Moves COVID from emergency use to a licensed product.
FDA approves Beyfortus (nirsevimab) for infants
Infant RSV prevention becomes a monoclonal antibody market, not only a vaccine market.
FDA approves Arexvy (first adult RSV vaccine) and Abrysvo (adult)
Wall Street priced an annual RSV franchise. ACIP later refused that frame.
ACIP: shared clinical decision-making for RSV in adults 60+
First adult RSV recommendation is optional, not routine. Demand starts narrower than launch decks.
FDA approves Abrysvo for maternal RSV
Only RSV vaccine with a maternal indication. Competes with infant mAbs for the same prevention budget.
FDA approves mRESVIA, first RSV mRNA vaccine
Third adult RSV product. Share fight, not a new TAM.
ACIP RSV: all adults 75+, risk-based 60-74, not annual
Single-dose, age-gated. The annual-booster thesis dies in a committee vote.
ACIP adds RSV vaccine for adults 50-59 at increased risk
Widens the eligible pool without restoring annual dosing.
FDA approves clesrovimab (Enflonsia) for infant RSV
Second infant RSV mAb. Beyfortus no longer has the lane to itself.
Moderna CMV Phase 3 miss (6% to 23% efficacy); congenital program killed
The largest non-respiratory mRNA vaccine bet fails. Pipeline value shifts to oncology.
BioNTech closes CureVac tender; Sanofi agrees to buy Dynavax (~$2.2B)
Platform M&A consolidates around incumbents plus the two mRNA names. Dynavax close still needs an 8-K.
Novavax licenses Matrix-M adjuvant to Pfizer
Adjuvant becomes a separate cash story from Nuvaxovid COVID volumes.
Bavarian Nordic and Serum Institute chikungunya tech transfer
LMIC dose volume for a travel vaccine moves to the world's largest manufacturer.
European Commission mRESVIA joint procurement, up to 24 million doses
Public-sector volume for adult RSV in Europe after the US recommendation narrowed.
FDA approves mFLUSIVA (mRNA-1010) for adults 50+
First US mRNA seasonal flu shot. Traditional approval 50-64; accelerated 65+. ACIP recommendation and 2026-27 contracting still the demand switch.
Intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157) Phase 3 melanoma readout expected
Phase 2b five-year data showed a 49% cut in recurrence or death versus Keytruda alone. Confirm endpoint and filing path from the joint release.
