Vaccines
Vaccines Supply Chain
LNP and Lipid Suppliers
Who can actually mix a commercial LNP. IP, lipids, and sponsor in-house mixing. Not a liter ranking.
| Node | Role | Who uses it | Constraint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acuitas (private) | LNP IP / licenses | Pfizer/BioNTech Comirnaty historically; other mRNA licenses | IP, not a public equity in this roster. |
| CordenPharma | Lipid manufacturing | Commercial mRNA lipids | Same peptide/lipid expansion story as GLP-1, different molecule. |
| Sponsor in-house | LNP mixing and fill | Moderna, BioNTech (plus CureVac assets), Pfizer | The mixing step is a trade secret as much as a plant. |
| Lonza | mRNA DS and LNP CDMO | When sponsors do not run every step | Shared sterile calendar with other biologics. |
| CureVac (now BioNTech) | Design and manufacturing | Absorbed Dec 2025 | Deal was about the factory and the design stack, not a marketed shot. |
mRNA Drug-Substance Footprint
Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, Lonza, and Thermo Fisher. Seasonal lots, not APA scale.
| Operator | Where | What it does | 2026 note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moderna | US manufacturing network (Norwood and related sites) | In-house DS, LNP, fill for Spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, mFLUSIVA | Company is shrinking to the commercial respiratory set after pipeline cuts. |
| Pfizer / BioNTech | Pfizer Kalamazoo / Puurs; BioNTech Germany | Comirnaty seasonal supply | Seasonal lots, not APA scale. BioNTech added CureVac plants. |
| Lonza | Visp and network | mRNA DS / LNP CDMO | Only name on the roster whose equity is the CDMO layer. |
| Thermo Fisher (Patheon) | Sterile network | Fill-finish more than DS | Dual-homed on GLP-1 because pens and vials share aseptic time. |
Flu Production Technology, 2025 Sales
Sanofi mix, Seqirus adjuvanted and cell-based, GSK egg, and mRNA flu at zero 2025 sales.
Sterile Fill-Finish for Vaccines
In-house sponsors plus Thermo Fisher, Lonza, West, and Serum Institute. Shared aseptic calendar with GLP-1 pens.
| Player | Role | Why it matters | GLP-1 overlap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pfizer | In-house vials and PFS for Prevnar, Comirnaty, Abrysvo | Owns the two largest named vaccine SKUs | No |
| Sanofi | In-house for Beyfortus, flu, PPH | Infant RSV mAb is a seasonal fill | No |
| GSK | In-house for Shingrix, Arexvy, established | Adjuvanted proteins, fridge chain | No |
| Moderna | In-house respiratory | Seasonal mRNA lots | No |
| Thermo Fisher (Patheon) | Independent sterile network | Overflow and launch lots | Yes. Dual-homed. |
| Lonza | Biologics / mRNA fill | CDMO when sponsors are full | Yes. Dual-homed. |
| West Pharma | Stoppers, plungers, vial components | Every injectable lot | Yes. Dual-homed. |
| Serum Institute | High-volume vials for Gavi products | Dose volume, not ASP | No |
Storage Requirements by Product
Current US labels. Ultra-cold is historical for seasonal mRNA. LMIC cold chain is the remaining differentiator.
| Product | Platform | Label storage | Practical point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comirnaty / Spikevax (current seasonal) | mRNA | Fridge for the labeled in-use window | First-gen -70 C is historical. US retail is a pharmacy fridge problem now. |
| mRESVIA / mFLUSIVA | mRNA | Fridge, per label | Same channel as flu and COVID in season. |
| Shingrix | Adjuvanted protein | 2 to 8 C | Two-vial reconstitution. Standard fridge. |
| Arexvy / Abrysvo | Protein | 2 to 8 C | Adult RSV is a one-and-done fridge SKU. |
| Gardasil 9 / Prevnar | VLP / conjugate | 2 to 8 C | Pediatric and adult clinic refrigerators. |
| Beyfortus | mAb | 2 to 8 C | Hospital and clinic, not a travel ULT story. |
| Gavi / SII products | Mixed | Mostly 2 to 8 C | LMIC cold chain is the remaining ULT/fridge differentiator. |
Serum Institute Dose Capacity
Company-stated ~4 billion doses and 170+ countries. Volume, not a USD P&L. Gavi/UNICEF backbone.
Stated annual capacity
~4B doses
World's largest vaccine manufacturer by volume, not by revenue.
Countries reached
170+
Gavi/UNICEF backbone for pentavalent, PCV, HPV, measles.
2026 adjacency
Chikungunya
Bavarian Nordic tech-transfer (Mar 2026) for LMIC Vimkunya supply.
Not on this bar
USD P&L
Private. Compare on doses and tenders, not against Shingrix dollars.
Issuer-Filed Dose Output and Plans
GSK delivered 389 million vaccine doses in 2025. Takeda plans 21 million Qdenga doses in FY2026. Serum Institute states ~4 billion capacity. Output, plan, and capacity are not one bar.
| Who | Printed figure | What it is | What it is not |
|---|---|---|---|
| GSK manufacturing network | 389 million vaccine doses delivered in 2025 | Output from 33 manufacturing sites, as printed in the 2025 annual report / 20-F | Not nameplate capacity. Not a like-for-like bar against Serum Institute. |
| GSK via Gavi | 99 million doses in 2025 | Output to Gavi: about 4 million Cervarix, 8 million RTS,S/AS01 malaria, 44 million Synflorix, 43 million Rotarix | Not the 389 million network total. Subset for lower-income countries. |
| GSK via UNICEF | About 55 million oral polio doses in 2025 | Output through UNICEF, as printed next to the Gavi figures | OPV, not Sanofi IPV. Not added into the 389 million row. |
| Takeda Qdenga | Plan to manufacture 21 million doses in FY2026 | Issuer manufacturing plan on the 13 May 2026 (updated 5 Jun 2026) FY2025 results presentation. On track toward 100 million doses per year by FY2030 | Not 2025 actual doses. Not FY2025 sales (those were JPY 40.8B). |
| Serum Institute of India | ~4 billion dose annual capacity | Company-stated capacity, 170+ countries. Gavi/UNICEF backbone | Capacity, not 2025 output. Private. Not a USD P&L. |
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