Copper & Critical Minerals
Rare Earth Producers
Rare Earth Mine Production by Country
USGS 2025e, REO equivalent. China 270 kt of 390 kt (69 percent). US 51 kt. Burma 22 kt is estimated from China import data. Country reserve rows printed NA are omitted, not invented.
MP Concentrate vs Lynas Ready-for-Sale
Not the same product. MP prints REO in concentrate. Lynas prints ready-for-sale REO on a June fiscal year. Do not add the rows. TMC has no mining volumes.
MP Materials: Concentrate vs Separated NdPr
Sequential stages, not additive metal. Separated NdPr reached 2,599 t in 2025 against 50,692 t of concentrate REO.
Lynas NdPr vs Total Ready-for-Sale REO
Total REO fell while NdPr rose in FY2025: a basket mix shift toward magnet material, not a mine collapse. June fiscal year.
US Concentrates vs Separated Compounds
Mountain Pass scale in concentrates, and Stage II separation ramping in compounds and metals. Net import reliance on compounds 67 percent in 2025e. The US remains a net exporter of concentrates.
Rare Earth Oxide Prices
USGS/Argus annual averages. Magnet oxides are a different market from lanthanum and cerium.
China Rare Earth Export Measures
Licensing, not a blanket embargo. April 2025 controls remained. October 2025 expansions were suspended for one year in November, per USGS.
| When | Measure | Status as of USGS Jan 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Gallium, germanium, graphite licensing | In force (Table 4) |
| 2024 | Antimony, magnesium materials licensing | In force (Table 4) |
| Apr 2025 | REE licensing extended to Sm, Gd, Tb, Dy, Lu, Sc, Y products | Remained in effect |
| Oct 2025 | Expanded to Eu, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb | Suspended for 1 year in Nov 2025 |
| 2025 Table 4 | Rare earths row under China licensing | In force as compiled to 21 Nov 2025 |
Rare Earth Operating Margin
Operating margin for the most recent fiscal year. Both producers are near or below breakeven, which is the central tension of the segment: these are the companies Western governments most want to exist, and the economics do not yet work at prices set largely inside China.
Rare Earth Revenue
Revenue for the most recent fiscal year. The absolute numbers are strikingly small against the strategic attention and state support these companies attract. TMC is absent because it is pre-revenue and awaiting deep-sea mining regulation.
Rare Earth Capital Spending
Capital expenditure for the most recent fiscal year. The spending is going into separation and magnet capacity rather than into mining, because refining is where the Chinese chokepoint actually sits.
Export Controls in Force
Every government export restriction on mineral commodities that the USGS recorded as active in January 2026. China works through licensing rather than bans, which throttles supply without an embargo, and the 2023 gallium and germanium controls were the template for everything that followed. Most other countries here ban raw ore exports outright, a different aim: forcing refining onshore rather than denying supply.
Licensing, not bans, is the instrument of choice. China restricts 14 categories through export licensing rather than an outright ban, which lets it throttle volumes and pick destinations case by case without ever declaring an embargo. The sequence runs gallium and germanium in 2023, graphite later that year, antimony in 2024, then tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium and molybdenum in 2025. The other 18 countries listed mostly ban raw ore exports instead, aiming to force refining onshore rather than to deny supply.
| Country | Instrument | Materials controlled (year imposed) | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Licensing | Antimony (2024), Bismuth (2025), Synthesized diamond (2025), Gallium (2023), Germanium (2023), Graphite (2023), Indium (2025), Magnesium materials (2024), Molybdenum (2025), Rare earths (2025), Silver (2026), Tellurium (2025), Tungsten (2025), Items related to lithium batteries and artificial graphite anode materials (2025) | 2026 |
| Armenia | Temporary ban | Metal waste and scrap (2025) | 2025 |
| Botswana | Ban | Raw diamonds (2025) | 2025 |
| Congo (Kinshasa) | Quota | Cobalt (2025) | 2025 |
| Kyrgyzstan | Temporary ban | Ferrous ingot and ferrous metal waste and scrap (2023), Catalysts and waste containing precious metals (2025) | 2025 |
| Morocco | Licensing | Copper (refined and alloys) and aluminum ingots (2025) | 2025 |
| South Africa | Licensing | Chromite ore (2025) | 2025 |
| Angola | Ban | Quartz and gypsum (2024) | 2024 |
| Laos | Ban | Raw minerals, including copper, gold, iron, nickel, potassium, silver, and zinc (2024) | 2024 |
| Malaysia | Ban | Raw rare earths (2024) | 2024 |
| Venezuela | Ban | Bauxite, cassiterite, columbite-tantalite, copper, gold, rhodium, silver, and thorium (2024) | 2024 |
| Indonesia | Ban | Bauxite (2023), Copper concentrates (2023), Nickel ore (2020) | 2023 |
| Namibia | Ban | Ores and concentrates of cobalt, graphite, lithium, manganese, and rare earths (2023) | 2023 |
| Thailand | Ban | Natural sand (2023) | 2023 |
| Russia | Ban | Steel waste and scrap, tungsten scrap, and enriched uranium (2022) | 2022 |
| Zimbabwe | Ban | Lithium ore (2022) | 2022 |
| Tajikistan | Ban | Metal waste and scrap (2020) | 2020 |
| Tanzania | Ban | Ore concentrates of copper, gold, nickel, and silver (2017) | 2017 |
| Vietnam | Ban | Raw materials of iron, lead-zinc, chromite, manganese, apatite, and rare earths and deeply processed titanium (2012) | 2012 |
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