Primary Gallium Production
A smelter byproduct, not a mine. USGS country prints; the world total is rounded and is not recomputed here.
Copper & Critical Minerals
Copper & Critical Minerals by Company
The metals that electrification, the grid and data centers cannot be built without, and the companies that dig them up. Copper is the bottleneck: no substitute at scale, decade-long lead times to new supply, and demand rising from three directions at once. The uncomfortable counterpoint is that strategic importance and profitability are different things, and at current prices lithium and rare earth producers are losing money while copper miners earn 25 to 52 percent margins.
Data updated 2026-10-30
The Copper & Critical Minerals sector on Sterling tracks 22 companies, led by BHP Group (22.1%), Rio Tinto (16%), Southern Copper (15.6%) by market share.
Copper & Critical Minerals market share by company (2026)
| # | Company | Market share |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BHP GroupBHP Market cap $218.0B | 22.1% |
| 2 | Rio TintoRIO Market cap $157.1B | 16% |
| 3 | Southern CopperSCCO Market cap $154.0B | 15.6% |
| 4 | Market cap $90.8B | 9.2% |
| 5 | GlencoreGLNCY Market cap $84.8B | 8.6% |
| 6 | ValeVALE Market cap $63.6B | 6.5% |
| 7 | Anglo AmericanNGLOY Market cap $55.1B | 5.6% |
| 8 | AntofagastaANFGF Market cap $49.5B | 5% |
| 9 | Teck ResourcesTECK Market cap $30.0B | 3% |
| 10 | SQMSQM Market cap $19.4B | 2% |
| 11 | AlbemarleALB Market cap $13.9B | 1.4% |
| 12 | Ivanhoe MinesIVPAF Market cap $10.9B | 1.1% |
Copper and Critical Minerals at a Glance
Eight sourced figures. USGS 2025 production is estimated. IEA 2035 copper shortfall is a project-pipeline comparison. ICSG 2026 is a forecast.
World copper mine 2025e
23.0 Mt
Unchanged from 2024. Chile 5.3 Mt, DRC 3.2 Mt, Peru 2.7 Mt.
USGS MCS 2026
China refined copper 2025e
14.0 Mt
Of 29.0 Mt world refined output. China mines 1.8 Mt.
USGS MCS 2026
World lithium mine 2025e
290 kt Li
Up 31% from 222 kt in 2024. Excludes withheld US output. Consumption 263 kt.
USGS MCS 2026
China rare earth mine 2025e
69%
270 kt of 390 kt world REO. The US mined 51 kt at Mountain Pass.
USGS MCS 2026
IEA copper to 2040
+30%
STEPS demand growth (2025 edition). The 2026 edition narrows the 2035 project-pipeline supply gap to 25% from 30%.
IEA GCMO 2025 and 2026
IEA lithium to 2040
5x
STEPS demand vs today. Near-term market well supplied; IEA sees deficit in the 2030s.
IEA GCMO 2025
ICSG refined balance
+104 kt
Forecast 2026 surplus, after a 419 kt surplus in 2025 and ahead of 368 kt in 2027. October 2026 ICSG view.
ICSG Oct 2026
US copper import reliance
57%
2025e share of apparent consumption. COMEX averaged a record $4.80/lb.
USGS MCS 2026
Critical Minerals at a Glance
Structural signals shaping the metals behind electrification.
- •Share here is share of tracked market capitalization ($985B across 22 companies), not share of global mine supply. Revenue share would be badly distorted because Glencore's commodity trading arm books roughly $248B of revenue at about one percent operating margin.
- •Copper has no substitute at scale and a supply side that cannot respond quickly: new mines take ten to twenty years, ore grades are falling, and the best remaining deposits sit in higher-risk jurisdictions.
- •Strategic importance and profitability are different things. Copper miners posted operating margins of roughly 14 to 52 percent in their latest fiscal years, while lithium and rare earth producers ranged from thin profits to heavy losses after prices fell from their 2022 peaks.
- •The China dependence that worries governments is concentrated in refining and separation rather than in mining, which is why Western policy has shifted toward funding processing capacity and why MP Materials and Lynas attract state support out of proportion to their revenue.
- •Byproduct credits make cost comparisons deceptive. Most copper mines also produce gold, silver or molybdenum and offset those revenues against copper cost, which is much of why Southern Copper's margins sit so far above the peer group.
Four Mineral Chains, Mine to Use
Copper, lithium and rare earths are different businesses. Weights are display ranks, not tonnes.
1
Copper mine
Chile porphyry
DRC sediment-hosted
Peru Andes
US / Indonesia
2
Copper midstream
China smelters 14 Mt
SX-EW cathode
Japan / Korea custom
3
Lithium extraction
Australia spodumene
Chile brine
China mixed
Argentina brine
4
Lithium chemicals
China hydroxide/carbonate
SQM Atacama
Albemarle Chile/Aus
5
Rare earth mine
China 270 kt REO
MP Mountain Pass
Lynas Mt Weld
6
REE separation
China separators
Lynas Malaysia/Texas
MP Stage II
7
End use
Grid / data centers (Cu)
EV motors (Cu)
EV batteries (Li)
NdFeB magnets
Tracked Public-Equity Universe
Twenty-two names in four segments. Pre-revenue developers are on the roster because they are listed, not because they have mine output.
Copper miners
Direct copper price beta. Gaps in margin come from grade, jurisdiction and byproduct credits, not from selling a different metal.
Freeport-McMoRan$FCXUS
Southern Copper$SCCOUS
Antofagasta$ANFGFGB
Teck Resources$TECKCA
Ivanhoe Mines$IVPAFCA
Hudbay Minerals$HBMCA
Ero Copper$EROCA
Nexa Resources$NEXALU
Trekor Metals$TGBCA
Diversified majors
Iron ore (and coal or trading) funds copper growth. Reported margins describe the whole portfolio.
BHP Group$BHPAU
Rio Tinto$RIOGB
Vale$VALEBR
Glencore$GLNCYCH
Anglo American$NGLOYGB
Lithium
A different market: small, chemical, and easily flooded. Chilean brine stayed profitable through the downcycle. Developers are pre-revenue.
Albemarle$ALBUS
SQM$SQMCL
Lithium Americas$LACCA
Piedmont Lithium$PLLUS
Sigma Lithium$SGMLCA
Rare earths and nodules
A processing and policy story more than a mine story. TMC is a regulatory option on deep-sea nodules, not a producing mine.
MP Materials$MPUS
Lynas Rare Earths$LYSDYAU
TMC the metals company$TMCCA
IEA STEPS Demand Multiple to 2040
Lithium fivefold, graphite and nickel double, copper plus 30 percent. Modelled multiples, not company guidance.
IEA 2024 Demand Growth
Lithium nearly 30 percent. Other battery minerals 6 to 8 percent. Copper about 3 percent, with China grid the largest swing.
Nearly 30%
Lithium
6 to 8%
Nickel, cobalt, graphite, rare earths
About 3%
Copper
Cobalt Mine Production
A byproduct metal: DRC copper-cobalt and Indonesian nickel. Not a copper business and not a lithium business. DRC is 74 percent of 310 kt.
Natural Graphite Mine Production
China 78 percent of 1.8 Mt natural graphite. Battery-grade anode material is a further processing step; IEA still has China around 80 percent of that step in 2035.
Nickel Mine Production
Indonesia 67 percent of 3.9 Mt. Laterite NPI and Class 1 sulphide are different products. This is not copper.
Copper on the 2025 US Critical Minerals List
A policy designation published 7 November 2025, not a price or margin forecast. Uranium stays on the Nuclear page.
Instrument
Final 2025 List of Critical Minerals
Published
7 Nov 2025, 90 FR 50494
Added vs 2022 (USGS method)
Copper, lead, potash, rhenium, silicon, silver
Added after comment
Boron, metallurgical coal, phosphate rock, uranium
What it is not
Not a price or margin forecast
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Instrument | Final 2025 List of Critical Minerals |
| Published | 7 Nov 2025, 90 FR 50494 |
| Added vs 2022 (USGS method) | Copper, lead, potash, rhenium, silicon, silver |
| Added after comment | Boron, metallurgical coal, phosphate rock, uranium |
| What it is not | Not a price or margin forecast |
Copper Since 1960
The bellwether industrial metal, monthly since 1960. The step change after 2004 is China's industrialization absorbing a decade of supply, and the level since has never returned to the twentieth-century range.
Margins Across the Whole Sector
Operating margin for every tracked company, ranked. The gap between the copper miners at the top and the lithium and rare earth producers at the bottom is the sector's defining fact: strategic importance and profitability are not the same thing.
Companies in the Copper & Critical Minerals sector (22)
Related industries
Frequently asked questions
What is the Copper & Critical Minerals sector?
The metals that electrification, the grid and data centers cannot be built without, and the companies that dig them up. Copper is the bottleneck: no substitute at scale, decade-long lead times to new supply, and demand rising from three directions at once. The uncomfortable counterpoint is that strategic importance and profitability are different things, and at current prices lithium and rare earth producers are losing money while copper miners earn 25 to 52 percent margins.
Which companies lead the Copper & Critical Minerals sector?
Sterling tracks 22 companies in Copper & Critical Minerals, led by BHP Group (22%), Rio Tinto (16%), Southern Copper (16%), Freeport-McMoRan (9%), Glencore (9%) and Vale (7%).
How can I invest in the Copper & Critical Minerals sector?
Publicly traded names in Copper & Critical Minerals include Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Southern Copper (SCCO), Antofagasta (ANFGF), Teck Resources (TECK) and Ivanhoe Mines (IVPAF). Compare them side by side on Sterling. Data last updated October 30, 2026.