Oil & Gas Refining

What a refiner actually earns turning crude into fuel, and the number that explains why refining margins and crude prices are different businesses. The spread collapsed in mid-2008 when crude ran to $134 faster than products could follow, and it peaked after Russia's invasion of Ukraine took diesel out of the Atlantic basin. Read it against the operating margins below: those are annual and after costs, this is monthly and before them.

Company-reported refining throughput or processed inputs for 2023 to 2025. Definitions differ: Valero is refining-segment throughput, Marathon is crude oil refined, Phillips 66 is worldwide adjusted processed inputs including equity-affiliate barrels.

Percent utilization of operable US refining capacity, monthly from EIA. This is a capacity-utilization rate, not throughput in barrels. Seasonal maintenance pulls the line down in the first quarter most years.

EIA's demand proxy for gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel: refinery and blender output plus imports minus exports and stock change. Gasoline is the EV-exposed line; distillate and jet are not.

City-average pump prices from EIA via FRED. These are not refiner realizations: taxes, distribution, and retail margins sit on top of the crack spread.

Operating margin for fiscal 2025. Refining runs on single-digit margins against enormous revenue, so small moves in the crack spread swing profits violently. This is the segment where a good year for producers can be a bad year for refiners.

Six years of revenue. Refiner revenue largely tracks the price of the crude they buy rather than their own profitability, which is why revenue and margin can move in opposite directions here.

Absolute operating income for fiscal 2025, the figure that thin percentage margins can obscure at this revenue scale.

Operating cash flow minus capital expenditure for fiscal 2025. Independent refiners throw off cash in high-crack years and can go negative when utilization and cracks both slump.