Industrial Automation Capex & Reshoring

The reshoring capex cycle in hard data. Spending roughly tripled from 2020 to a September 2024 peak above $250B annualized, then rolled off as the first wave of megaprojects completed.

Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, the broadest monthly proxy for the equipment capex this sector sells into, with year over year change.

Output has moved sideways since 2022 while utilization drifted down. The construction boom has not yet become a step-change in production: the gap between announced capacity and running plants.

Does the macro order book lead vendor revenue? The turns broadly line up, with the vendor cohort swinging wider in both directions.

Factory construction as a percent of all US construction, not the dollar run rate. The share peaked at 11.1 percent in June 2024 and eased to about 8 percent by mid-2026.

The openings rate, not the openings-versus-hires count. Manufacturing tightness peaked in 2022; by June 2026 the manufacturing rate sat below the all-industry rate.