Commercial Aerospace

Aerospace Certification

Certification Status Tracker

Aircraft can be built, flown, and parked, but none of it converts to cash until the type certificate lands. Boeing is waiting on three variants at once, which is why its near-term delivery guidance is more sensitive to the FAA than to its own factories.

Certified

In certification

Delayed

Programme	Where it stands	Target	Context
Boeing 737 MAX 7 In certification	Certification flight testing complete	Certification expected 2026, first delivery 2027	The FAA administrator has said the MAX 7 should clear first of the three waiting Boeing variants. Southwest is the launch customer and has been planning around it for years.
Boeing 737 MAX 10 In certification	Certification flight testing complete	Certification expected by end 2026, first delivery 2027	The largest 737 and the direct answer to the A321neo, which has been selling into the gap for the whole delay.
Boeing 777-9 Delayed	Certification work extended	First delivery 2027	Originally due in service in 2020, which puts the programme roughly seven years late. The FAA has signalled it will certify the 777-9 after the two 737 variants.
Boeing 777-8 Freighter Behind the 777-9	Queued behind the passenger variant	Late decade	Cannot move ahead of the 777-9 in the certification queue, so its schedule inherits every slip above it.
Airbus A321XLR Certified	Type certificate granted, in service	Delivering	The extra-long-range narrowbody. Certified and flying, with the rear centre tank protection requirement resolved during the campaign.
Airbus A350F In development	Order book building	Entry into service late decade	The freighter derivative of the A350, aimed squarely at the 777 Freighter as ICAO emissions rules close the older type out.

The 737 MAX Production Ceiling

For two years the most consequential number in Boeing's cash flow was set by a regulator. The FAA capped output at 38 per month after the door-plug blowout, held it there for 21 months, then replaced the hard cap with performance-based oversight.

Jan 2024FAA caps productionThe FAA freezes 737 output at 38 per month after the Alaska Airlines door-plug blowout and opens an audit of Boeing's quality system.
Oct 2025First increase approvedAfter 21 months at the cap, the FAA clears the first step up to 42 per month.
Mar 2026Hard cap replacedThe FAA moves from a fixed numerical ceiling to performance-based oversight tied to Boeing's Product Quality Management System.
May 2026Capstone review clearedBoeing passes the FAA capstone review and moves to 47 per month.
End 2026Company targetBoeing's stated goal for the end of 2026. This is a target rather than a cleared rate.

How Late Programmes Run

Delay is the normal condition of a clean-sheet aircraft programme, not a feature of this era: the 787 and A350 both ran years over a decade ago. What has changed is the concentration, with Boeing carrying two seven-year slips at once.

Still open, could move again

Settled, entered service

Eight Years of Regulatory Escalation

The FAA moved from delegating certification work to Boeing, to grounding its best-selling aircraft, to capping how many it could build, to auditing the system that builds them. Every timeline on this tab is downstream of that shift.

Oct 2018
Lion Air Flight 610
The first 737 MAX loss. MCAS, a flight-control system most pilots had not been told about, is identified in the investigation.
Mar 2019
Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 and the global grounding
The second loss in five months. Regulators worldwide ground the 737 MAX, and the FAA is the last major authority to act.
Nov 2020
FAA rescinds the grounding order
Twenty months out of service. Return required design changes, new training, and a rebuilt certification basis.
Jan 2024
Alaska Airlines door-plug blowout and the production cap
The FAA caps 737 output at 38 per month and opens an audit of Boeing's production quality system. The cap holds for 21 months.
Oct 2025
FAA approves the first rate increase
Output cleared to 42 per month, the first relief since the cap was imposed.
Dec 2025
Boeing completes the re-acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems
The 737 fuselage supplier comes back in house, with Airbus taking over the Airbus work packages. Vertical integration as a quality fix.
Mar 2026
Hard cap replaced with performance-based oversight
The FAA ties future rate increases to Boeing's Product Quality Management System rather than a fixed number.
May 2026
Boeing clears the FAA capstone review
737 output moves to 47 per month, with 53 stated as the company target for the end of 2026.
2026
737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 finish certification flight testing
Both variants enter the final stage of certification, with first deliveries targeted for 2027 and the 777-9 queued behind them.

Who Certifies What

A US type certificate does not by itself allow European operations. EASA validates FAA certificates under the US-EU bilateral, and the reverse. CAAC certification of the C919 is independent and is not a western validation on this page.

Authority	Issues	Delegation	Validation
FAA United States	Type certificates, production certificates, airworthiness certificates, airworthiness directives	ODA lets a manufacturer's employees perform specified certification functions. Tightened after the MAX accidents and again after Alaska 1282.	Validates EASA and other bilateral partners' type certificates rather than repeating the full campaign.
EASA European Union and associated states	EU type certificates, design organisation approvals, production organisation approvals	Design Organisation Approval is the European cousin of ODA, with different independence rules.	Validates FAA type certificates under the US-EU BASA. Post-MAX, EASA imposed its own conditions on the 737 MAX return.
TCCA Canada	Canadian type certificates and production certificates	Delegated organizations under Canadian aviation regulations.	Long-standing bilateral with the FAA. A220 certification history runs through TCCA as well as EASA.
ANAC Brazil	Brazilian type certificates for Embraer programmes	Brazilian certification basis for the E-Jet E2 family.	FAA and EASA validation of ANAC type certificates is the western entry ticket for E2.
CAAC China	Chinese type certificates, including C919	Domestic industrial policy sits beside the safety function.	C919 is certified in China. Western validation is not in place on this page, which is why the type is a China-only delivery story.

NTSB Findings, Alaska Airlines 1282

Probable cause was Boeing's failure to train, guide, and oversee factory workers so that door-plug bolts removed for rivet rework were put back. The FAA's compliance-enforcement surveillance was a contributing cause. Adopted June 2025.

Item	Finding
Event	5 January 2024, climb through about 14,830 feet after takeoff from Portland. Left mid-exit door plug departed. Rapid depressurization. One flight attendant and seven passengers minor injuries. Substantial airplane damage.
Probable cause	Boeing Commercial Airplanes failed to provide adequate training, guidance, and oversight so manufacturing personnel would follow the parts-removal process and reinstall the securing bolts and hardware.
Contributing cause	The FAA's ineffective compliance-enforcement surveillance and audit planning failed to identify and force Boeing to fix repetitive, systemic nonconformance in the parts-removal process.
Factory sequence	The door plug was opened at Renton on 18 September 2023 for rivet repair without the required removal record, and closed the next day. Specialized technicians required by Boeing's procedure were not on shift. No quality-assurance inspection of the closure followed.
Hardware	The four securing bolts were not reinstalled. The plug was held only by the remaining structure until it departed in flight, three months after delivery.
Safety management system	In the two years before the accident, Boeing's voluntary SMS was inadequate, lacked formal FAA oversight, and did not proactively identify and mitigate the risk.
Recommendations	11 new recommendations to the FAA and 8 to Boeing (A-25-015 through A-25-033), including completion of an MED-plug design enhancement and an airworthiness directive for in-service aircraft.

DOT OIG on FAA Oversight of Boeing Production

The October 2024 inspector-general audit found FAA audits are not data-targeted, supplier First Article Inspections are not required reading, the compliance system cannot see repeats, and FAA had no measurable criteria to return ODA delegation.

Finding	What the audit said
Audits are not targeted with data	FAA exceeds its own minimum audit count but does not use data-driven assessments to aim those audits, and the audits are not structured as comprehensive assessments of the production line.
Supplier conformity is weakly checked	FAA has not adequately ensured Boeing and its suppliers produce parts that conform to the approved design. Inspectors are not required to review First Article Inspections.
The compliance system cannot see repeats	FAA's CEA system cannot track milestones or determine whether a noncompliance is repetitive and therefore needs elevated action.
Boeing's SMS has not been fully assessed	FAA has not fully assessed the effectiveness of Boeing's Safety Management System, including how it interfaces with the quality system.
No criteria to return ODA delegation	FAA has not established specific, measurable criteria Boeing must meet before delegated authority is returned to the Organization Designation Authorization unit.
Undue-pressure cases sat open	Of 34 allegations reviewed, 15 remained unresolved at FAA for more than a year, and two had been open more than two years.

IATA All-Accident Rate

2025 improved on 2024 (1.32 versus 1.42 accidents per million sectors) but sat slightly above the five-year average of 1.27. Fatality risk moved the other way: 0.17 against 0.06, on eight fatal accidents and 394 onboard fatalities.

2025 Accident Rate by Operator and Aircraft Class

IATA members (0.72) and IOSA-registered carriers (0.98) sat well below the all-operator rate of 1.32. Non-IOSA carriers were at 2.55. Jets (1.03) were safer than turboprops (4.08).

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