Commercial Aerospace
Commercial aerospace is the industry that builds the world's airliners: the Boeing and Airbus duopoly, the engine oligopoly whose aftermarket annuities outearn the engines themselves, and the supplier chain both depend on. A backlog of more than 14,000 aircraft, roughly a decade of production, has collided with a supply chain still broken from the pandemic and Boeing's quality crisis, leaving airlines short of jets and delivery slots effectively sold out into the 2030s.
Commercial Aerospace at a Glance
- •Airbus delivered 766 commercial aircraft in 2024 against Boeing's 348, the widest annual gap in the duopoly's history, per the companies' monthly orders and deliveries reports.
- •The combined Boeing and Airbus backlog exceeds 14,000 aircraft, roughly a decade of production at current rates, leaving attractive delivery slots effectively sold out into the early 2030s.
- •The FAA capped 737 MAX production at 38 aircraft per month in January 2024 after the Alaska Airlines door-plug blowout; Boeing's climb back up the rate curve is the single biggest swing factor in its cash flow.
- •Engines are sold near cost and monetized over decades: services and spare parts generate roughly 70 percent of GE Aerospace's commercial engine revenue, the aftermarket annuity at the heart of the sector.
- •Pratt & Whitney's geared turbofan powder-metal recall has kept hundreds of A320neo-family jets grounded for inspections, a multibillion-dollar reminder that engine reliability drives airline economics.
- •Global air passenger traffic surpassed its 2019 pre-pandemic record in 2024, with IATA reporting full-year revenue passenger kilometers up just over 10 percent versus 2023.
- •Boeing's Commercial Market Outlook and the Airbus Global Market Forecast each project demand for more than 40,000 new aircraft over 20 years, about three quarters of them single-aisle jets.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Commercial Aerospace sector?
Commercial aerospace is the industry that builds the world's airliners: the Boeing and Airbus duopoly, the engine oligopoly whose aftermarket annuities outearn the engines themselves, and the supplier chain both depend on. A backlog of more than 14,000 aircraft, roughly a decade of production, has collided with a supply chain still broken from the pandemic and Boeing's quality crisis, leaving airlines short of jets and delivery slots effectively sold out into the 2030s.
