Commercial Aerospace
Aerospace Supply Chain
The Supplier Chain and Its Chokepoints
How the chain is layered, who sits where, and what limits output at each level. The economics invert as you descend: the layer that assembles the most metal earns the least, and sole-source component makers protected by certification barriers earn the most.
| Layer | Economics |
|---|---|
| Airframers | Assembly margin on a decade-long backlog |
| Engines | New engines near cost, then 20 to 30 years of spares and overhaul |
| Systems and interiors | Ship-set content per aircraft plus retrofit aftermarket |
| Aerostructures | The thinnest layer in the chain, and loss-making for six straight years |
| Components and materials | Sole-source positions with aftermarket pricing power, EBITDA margins above 50 percent at the top end |
| Aftermarket and PMA | Undercuts OEM spares pricing on approved alternative parts, and monetises the ageing installed fleet |
| Lessors | Lease rates and portfolio marks, a real-time price on aircraft scarcity |
Supplier Revenue and Operating Margin
The margin inversion in one chart. TransDigm earns 46 percent operating margins on proprietary sole-source parts while Spirit AeroSystems, which builds actual fuselages, runs deeply negative. Switch the metric to compare revenue scale and growth.
Operating marginTTM revenueRevenue growth
What a Broken Tier-1 Looks Like
Spirit AeroSystems was the largest independent aerostructures builder and made healthy margins through 2018. It never earned a profit again after the 737 MAX grounding, and Boeing completed its re-acquisition in December 2025.
Revenue ($B)Operating margin
Rate Readiness Tracker
Where each programme sits on its rate curve and what is actually holding it back. Almost every target here has moved at least once, so the gate column is the one that matters: Boeing's climb is governed by the FAA, and Airbus blames engine supply.
Climbing
Planned
Slipping
Constrained
Blocked
| Programme | Now | Target | What gates it |
|---|---|---|---|
Boeing 737 MAX Climbing | 47 per month | 53 per month by end 2026 | FAA oversight. Capped at 38 after the January 2024 door-plug blowout, raised to 42 in October 2025, then moved to performance-based oversight in March 2026. Boeing cleared the FAA capstone review in May 2026 to reach 47. |
Airbus A320 family Slipping | Ramping toward rate 75 | About 70 by end 2027, stabilising at 75 | Engine supply. Airbus has publicly blamed Pratt & Whitney deliveries for the stall and has stood up a tenth final assembly line, including a second at Mobile, Alabama, to hold the curve. |
Boeing 787 Climbing | About 8 per month | 10 per month in 2026 | Assembly capacity. A $1B North Charleston expansion adds a 1.2 million square foot final assembly line, with roughly 14 per month held out as the eventual ceiling. |
Airbus A220 Slipping | Below plan | 12 per month in 2026, cut from 14 | Supply and demand balance. Airbus says the rate 14 target is deferred rather than dropped, without naming a date. |
Airbus A350 Planned | Below target | 12 per month in 2028 | Aerostructures and cabin equipment, the same interiors and seat certification bottleneck that constrains every widebody line. |
CFM LEAP Climbing | 1,802 engines in 2025 | Continued growth into 2026 | Structural castings and hot-section capacity. 2025 output was a program record, 28 percent above 2024 and finally past the 2019 peak. |
Pratt & Whitney GTF Constrained | 1,055 large turbofans in 2025 | Recovery through 2026 | The powder-metal recall. Inspections take 250 to 300 days per engine and RTX has guided to roughly 350 aircraft grounded on an average day through the end of 2026, which is also what caps new-engine output. |
Boeing 777X Blocked | Not in delivery | First delivery 2027 | Certification, not production. Aircraft are being built and stored while the programme waits on the FAA. |
Howmet Engine Products
Airfoils and rings, the casting chokepoint, in one P&L. Third-party sales reached $1.16B in Q4 2025 with segment adjusted EBITDA margin at 34.0 percent. Full-year sales were $4.32B, up 16 percent, after adding about 1,445 net headcount.
Howmet by Segment, 2024 vs 2025
Engine Products is more than half the company. Fastening Systems is the other aerospace annuity. Engineered Structures is closer to aerostructures economics. Forged Wheels, mostly truck wheels, was the only segment to shrink.
HEICO Flight Support Group
The PMA, repair, and distribution franchise. Fiscal 2025 sales were $3.12B with $750 million of operating income (24.1 percent margin). Fiscal 2023 sales are 60 percent of company sales, the share HEICO discloses for that year.
TransDigm FY2025 Revenue Mix
About 90 percent proprietary products and 55 percent aftermarket, per the 10-K. The bars are the Q4 slide's FY2025 pro forma mix: commercial aftermarket 32 percent, commercial OEM 25 percent, defense 43 percent.
Proprietary products
~90%
Share of fiscal 2025 net sales, 10-K estimate.
Aftermarket
~55%
Share of fiscal 2025 net sales, commercial and military combined.
AerCap Owned Fleet by Family
1,413 owned passenger aircraft plus 88 owned freighters at year-end 2025. The A320neo family is the largest owned passenger bucket (433), ahead of the A320ceo family (351) and 737NG (212). Managed aircraft and orders are excluded.
AerCap Lease Spread and Sale Gains
Net spread rose from 7.5 percent in 2024 to 7.8 percent in 2025. Owned-aircraft utilization was 99 percent. Sale gains of $819 million, up from $651 million, are a scarcity signal: used aircraft are clearing above book.
Owned aircraft utilization, 2025
99%
Owned passenger fleet age
7.3 years
Remaining contracted lease term
7.1 years
Portfolio owned, managed, on order
3,500
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