Semi Trucks
Electric Truck Market & Sales
Global Electric Truck Sales by Region
Global electric truck sales by region. M&HD = medium-duty + heavy-duty (everything bigger than a delivery van). China dominates with 80%+ of global sales; total reached ~90,000 units in 2024.
IEA Electric Truck Sales by Region (MFT + HFT)
IEA medium- plus heavy-freight electric truck sales. Broader than US Class 8: 2025 US volume is mostly medium freight (Rivian vans). China is more than 90% of 2025's 400,000-plus units. Europe about 17,000; North America about 20,000.
China New-Energy Heavy-Duty Truck Sales
China heavy-duty new-energy trucks only (CV World / CNEVPost), not the IEA MFT+HFT series. 231,100 units in 2025 (28.89% of China HD). December 2025 hit 53.89% monthly penetration.
Cumulative electric and fuel-cell truck deliveries, by manufacturer
Cumulative BEV/FCEV truck deliveries by OEM through year-end. Tilde values are estimates, exact integers are direct disclosures; PACCAR omitted (no disclosure).
| OEM | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla Semi | ~15 | ~100 | ~150 | ~200-300 | Pilot only. Tesla does not disclose Semi deliveries; figures are trade-press estimates. Mass-production Nevada line first truck off April 2026. |
| Daimler Truck Group BEV | ~1,200 | 3,443 | 7,478 | ~11,978 | Group BEV total includes eCascadia (US), eActros (EU), eCanter (Asia), and electric buses. Daimler does not split by brand. 2025 estimated from 2024 cum plus inferred FY2025 deliveries per Q1 2026 PR comparatives. |
| Volvo Group BEV (Global) | ~600 | ~3,000 | ~4,400 | ~6,788 | Includes Volvo Trucks BEV (VNR Electric, FH/FM Electric) and Mack LR Electric. 2025 Q4 cumulative includes meaningful light-duty Q4 deliveries (1,088); Class-8 only would be lower. |
| Nikola Tre BEV | 83 | 158 | FROZEN at 156 | FROZEN at 156 | Cumulative BEV deliveries dropped from 158 in 2023 to 156 in 2024 after a recall returned 78 units. Chapter 11 filed February 2025; series frozen at the bankruptcy date. |
| Nikola Tre FCEV | 0 | 35 | ~245 | FROZEN at ~282 | Hydrogen fuel-cell Tre. 2024 cum through Q3 (235) plus partial Q4 before bankruptcy. Series frozen February 2025. |
| Xos Stepvans/Powertrains | ~250 | ~400 | ~700 | ~1,000 | Class 5-7 stepvans and stripped-chassis powertrains, not Class 8. Clean quarterly disclosure in SEC 8-Ks. 2026-Q1 cumulative ~1,023. |
| Lion Electric Trucks (only) | ~30 | ~50 | FROZEN at ~60 | FROZEN at ~60 | Trucks only; excludes Lion's larger school-bus volume. CCAA filed December 2024; series frozen at Q3 2024 disclosure. |
| PACCAR (Kenworth T680E + Peterbilt 579EV) | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | PACCAR does not disclose unit-level ZEV deliveries. Next-gen T680E/579EV production started 2026. Recommended source for future enrichment: CALSTART ZETI vehicle registrations. |
Tesla Semi: Disclosed Facts
Tesla does not report Semi deliveries as a 10-K line. Volume production of the Nevada line started 29 April 2026. Factory nameplate is 50,000 per year, not 2026 output. Pilot-fleet size is a labeled estimate. Nikola is omitted (Chapter 11; not a going concern).
| Item | Value | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| First customer deliveries | 1 Dec 2022 | Disclosed | PepsiCo event at Giga Nevada. Pilot / hand-built line, not the 2026 volume hall. |
| Pilot fleet through 2025 | About 100 to 200 units | Estimate (Tesla does not disclose) | Trade press and operator photos. Not a Tesla IR figure. Do not treat as a time series. |
| Volume production start | 29 Apr 2026 | Disclosed | First truck off the dedicated high-volume line in Storey County, Nevada. |
| Nevada factory nameplate | 50,000 / year | Disclosed capacity | Tesla stated Class 8 BEV tractor capacity. Ramp is gradual; nameplate is not 2026 production. |
| 2026 build comment | Many thousands | Program director, ACT Expo May 2026 | Dan Priestley. Not a Form 8-K unit outlook. |
| Standard Range (volume spec) | 325 miles at 82,000 lb GCWR | Disclosed Feb 2026 | Tesla published two trims. Long Range 500 miles at the same GCWR. |
| CA CTBVP applications (Jan 2025 to Feb 2026) | 965 of 1,067 | Voucher applications, not deliveries | Electrek citing California Clean Truck & Bus Voucher program. Daimler, PACCAR, and Volvo combined under 100 applications in that window. |
| WattEV order | 370 tractors (50 in 2026) | Buyer disclosure | WattEV at ACT Expo: 50 scheduled 2026, remainder by end-2027. Order is not a Tesla delivery report. |
BYD New-Energy Commercial Vehicle Sales
BYD disclosed NEV commercial vehicles (buses plus trucks and vans), not a Class 8 tractor count. 57,013 units in 2025 versus 21,775 in 2024 (CEIC / BYD).
Daimler Truck, Volvo Group, and PACCAR Deliveries
All-powertrain unit deliveries for the three listed groups. 2025 is a North America down-cycle (Daimler TNA -26%, PACCAR US/Canada -27%). PACCAR does not disclose ZEV units.
Truck orders versus trucks sold, by manufacturer
OEM book-to-bill ratio by quarter: new orders divided by units sold. Above 100% grows the backlog, below 100% drains it. PACCAR does not disclose orders.
| Quarter | Daimler Truck B:B | Volvo Group B:B | PACCAR B:B | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2023 | 98% | 98% | n/d | Both OEMs near balance; first quarter of post-COVID order normalization. |
| Q2 2023 | 73% | 76% | n/d | Both OEMs sub-100% as Europe and NA fleet customers pause ordering. |
| Q3 2023 | 77% | 85% | n/d | Continued slowdown. |
| Q4 2023 | 77% | 75% | n/d | Both below 80%. |
| Q1 2024 | 96% | 88% | n/d | Stabilization begins. |
| Q2 2024 | 83% | 81% | n/d | |
| Q3 2024 | 83% | 93% | n/d | |
| Q4 2024 | 99% | 104% | n/d | Crossover: Volvo first above 100% in the cycle. |
| Q1 2025 | 103% | 113% | n/d | Both above 100%. |
| Q2 2025 | 83% | 91% | n/d | Tariff-related pause; Daimler TNA segment alone hit 36% B:B (cycle low). |
| Q3 2025 | 95% | 83% | n/d | |
| Q4 2025 | 119% | 95% | n/d | Daimler snap-back as tariff clarity + EPA 2027 pre-buy drives orders. |
| Q1 2026 | 166% | 132% | n/d | Strong order acceleration both OEMs. Daimler value reflects continuing-ops basis (Trucks Asia deconsolidated into ARCHION JV); Daimler TNA segment alone hit 201% B:B. |
North America truck deliveries by manufacturer
North America-only quarterly truck deliveries for the three Class-8 majors (Daimler, PACCAR, Volvo), an apples-to-apples cross-OEM comparison.
| Quarter | PACCAR (Kenworth + Peterbilt) | Daimler TNA (Freightliner + Western Star) | Volvo NA (Volvo Trucks + Mack) | Total (3 OEMs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2023 | 26,000 | 48,891 | 16,011 | 90,902 |
| Q2 2023 | 27,500 | 50,618 | 15,960 | 94,078 |
| Q3 2023 | 27,500 | 47,249 | 15,041 | 89,790 |
| Q4 2023 | 28,100 | 48,256 | 13,770 | 90,126 |
| Q1 2024 | 29,500 | 46,220 | 15,056 | 90,776 |
| Q2 2024 | 28,700 | 48,230 | 16,234 | 93,164 |
| Q3 2024 | 25,900 | 49,176 | 12,026 | 87,102 |
| Q4 2024 | 22,300 | 46,802 | 13,615 | 82,717 |
| Q1 2025 | 22,200 | 38,992 | 14,315 | 75,507 |
| Q2 2025 | 23,000 | 38,580 | 12,981 | 74,561 |
| Q3 2025 | 17,100 | 30,225 | 9,622 | 56,947 |
| Q4 2025 | 15,000 | 34,017 | 11,490 | 60,507 |
| Q1 2026 | 17,800 | 29,432 | 9,486 | 56,718 |
US and Canada Class 8 Retail Market
Industry Class 8 retail in the US and Canada as PACCAR reports it: 268,100 in 2024 and 232,000 in 2025. This is the all-powertrain denominator for US Class 8 ZEV share.
Fleet Orders & Reservations
Major fleet pre-orders and deliveries: PepsiCo, Walmart, UPS, Amazon, FedEx, and others placing bets on electric freight.
| Fleet | OEM / Supplier | Units Ordered | Delivery Status | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werner Enterprises | Tesla (Semi) | 35 | Ordered | 2025 | Bloomberg |
| Walmart | Tesla (Semi) | 130 | Ordered | 2024 | Bloomberg, Walmart sustainability report |
| Sysco | Daimler eCascadia | 50 | Ordered | 2024 | Daimler Truck, Sysco |
| FedEx | BYD Class 8 | 75 | Ordered | 2024 | FedEx sustainability report |
| Maersk | Volvo / Einride | 300 | Ordered | 2024 | Maersk, Einride press release |
| Biagi Bros | Tesla (Semi) | 25 | In service | 2024 | Tesla, Biagi Bros |
| UPS | Tesla (Semi) | 125 | Ordered | 2023 | Reuters, UPS filings |
| Anheuser-Busch | BYD / Nikola | 800 | Ordered | 2023 | Company press release |
| DHL Supply Chain | Daimler eCascadia | 100 | In service | 2023 | Daimler Truck, DHL |
| Schneider National | Daimler eCascadia | 50 | In service | 2023 | Schneider, Daimler |
| PepsiCo | Tesla (Semi) | 100 | In service | 2022 | Tesla, PepsiCo disclosures |
| Amazon | Volvo VNR Electric | 20 | In service | 2022 | Volvo Trucks, Amazon |
| NFI Industries | Volvo VNR Electric | 14 | deployed | 2022 | Volvo Trucks |
Revenue Forecasts by Analyst
Wall Street's electric-truck revenue forecasts vary 20x because each analyst defines the market differently. Heavy-duty (Class 7-8 only) forecasts land at $1.9B-$42B; all-truck forecasts at $1.5B-$32B; broader commercial-EV definitions stretch past $89B.
Heavy-Duty Electric Trucks
| Source | Scope | Base | 2025 | 2026 | 2028 | 2030 | 2033 | 2035 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Market Insights | Global Heavy-Duty Trucks | — | $16.97B | — | — | — | — | $152.95B | 22.2% |
| DataNext Research | US Class 8 Only | $1.92B | $2.52B | $3.3B | $5.68B | $9.76B | $24.76B | $42.44B | 31.2% |
| Market Research Future | Global Heavy-Duty | $0.93B | — | — | — | — | — | $14.5B | ~28% |
| Grand View Research | Global Heavy-Duty (>26K lbs) | — | $1.93B | $2.4B | — | $4.7B | $6.45B | — | 15.1% |
| IMARC Group (China Only) | China Electric Trucks | 3 | — | — | — | — | $19.3B | — | 20.6% |
All Electric Trucks (All Classes)
| Source | Scope | Base ($B) | End Value | CAGR | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarketsandMarkets | Global (All Classes) | — | $5.25B | — | — |
| Fortune Business Insights | Global (All Classes) | — | $1.51B | — | — |
| Precedence Research | Global (All Classes) | $1.22B | $1.6B | — | — |
| Straits Research | Global (All Classes) | $1.34B | $1.69B | — | — |
| Allied Market Research | Global (All Classes) | $0.39B | — | — | — |
| IMARC Group | Global (All Classes) | $0.85B | — | — | — |
| Technavio | Global Growth Increment | — | — | — | +$20.32B (cumul.) |
| P&S Intelligence (US Only) | US Only (All Classes) | $0.73B | — | — | — |
Why Some Numbers Are 10× Larger
Broader-market reports include vans, buses, and light commercial vehicles, not just heavy-duty trucks. That explains the order-of-magnitude gap.
| Source | Scope | 2024 | 2025 | End Value | CAGR | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mordor Intelligence | Global Electric Commercial Vehicles | $77.8B | $89.37B | $166.30B | 13.5% | Includes all commercial EVs (vans, trucks, buses) |
| Mordor Intelligence | Electric Trucks Sub-segment | — | $89.37B | $226.75 (2029)B | 26.2% | Methodology unclear; likely includes LCVs |
| Polaris Market Research | Global Electric Trucks | $43.81B | — | — | ~30% | Broad definition; through 2034 |
| Grand View Research | Global Electric Trucks (General) | — | — | $124.97B | 27.1% | 2023 base: $22.61B; includes all classes |
Unit Volume Forecasts by Region
How many electric trucks analysts expect to be sold annually by region. M&HD = medium- and heavy-duty trucks. IEA projects 500K-1.6M units/yr globally by 2035; China is expected to hit 46% EV share of its truck market by 2030.
| Source | Region | 2024 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IEA (STEPS Scenario) | Global | 90,000+ | ~180,000 (est.) | ~500,000-700,000 | ~1,600,000 | >20% of M&HDV sales by 2035 |
| IEA (APS Scenario) | Global | 90,000+ | ~180,000 (est.) | Higher than STEPS | ~30% sales share | Announced Pledges Scenario |
| IEA (NZE Scenario) | Global | 90,000+ | ~180,000 (est.) | Significantly higher | >55% sales share | Net Zero Emissions by 2050 |
| BloombergNEF | Global | 90,000+ (H1: 89,000 in H1 2025) | ~4% global share | China: 46% of truck sales | - | China 90% of H1 2025 sales |
| ICCT | Europe | ~24,000 | ~50,000 (est.) | 290,000-340,000 | - | From 22,500 base (Sept 2025) |
| ICCT | China | 230,000+ | ~450,000+ (25% share) | - | - | BEV heavy trucks at 29% penetration H1 2025 |
| IEA | United States | <0.1% | <0.5% | ~8% | - | Uncertain due to emissions standards changes |
| IEA | Europe | 2.3% | 3.6% (H1) | ~33% | - | 25% fleet-wide by 2030 |
| IEA | India | <0.1% | <0.5% | ~2% | - | Earliest stage among major markets |
| Frost & Sullivan | Global | - | - | 6,300,000 | - | 41.4% CAGR from 397,146 units (2022) |
| ACT Research | North America | <0.1% | <1% | 25% | - | Lowest among all truck classes; 50% by 2040 |
| McKinsey | EU+US+China | - | - | - | >50% | Up to $140B market by 2035 |
| Precedence Research | Global | 618,170 | 841,460 | - | 13,499,830 (2034) | 36.1% CAGR; light commercial vehicles |
EV Penetration Rates (% of New Truck Sales)
Penetration rate = the share of new truck sales that are electric (not the share of the existing fleet). China leads at 25-29% in H1 2025; the US is under 0.5%; Europe sits at 2-3.6% with the Netherlands top at 6.5%.
| Region | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | H1 2025 | 2030F | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China (Heavy Trucks) | <3% | ~5% | 9-14% | 25-29% | 46% (BNEF) | ICCT; BloombergNEF |
| Europe (Heavy Trucks >16t) | <0.5% | 0.9-1.5% | 2.0-2.3% | 3.6% | 25-33% (IEA) | ACEA; IEA |
| Netherlands (EU Leader) | — | — | — | 6.5%+ | — | ACEA H1 2025 |
| United States (Class 8) | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.5% | ~8% (IEA) | IEA; ICCT |
| Global (M&HD Trucks) | <1% | ~1.5% | ~2.0% | ~3-4% | >10% (est.) | IEA Global EV Outlook 2025 |
| India | <0.01% | <0.05% | <0.1% | <0.1% | ~2% (IEA) | IEA |
CARB Advanced Clean Trucks ZEV Sales Schedule
Manufacturer ZEV sales percentages in the ACT regulation text, not observed California sales. Class 7-8 tractors top out at 40% in MY 2032 to 2035. The EPA waiver was rescinded in 2025; treat 2026 onward as legally contested.
Section 177 State ACT Adoption Status
California plus 10 states that copied ACT. Original model-year start dates versus 2025 to 2026 enforcement pauses after the EPA waiver rescission. Legal status, not ZEV sales.
| Jurisdiction | Original start MY | Enforcement | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | 2024 | Contested | Originating ACT rule. CRA waiver rescission 2025; litigation pending. CARB withdrew proposed ACT amendments 29 Apr 2026. |
| New York | 2025 | Contested | Adopted Dec 2021. NYTVIP vouchers run separately from waiver status. |
| Massachusetts | 2025 | Enforcement delayed | MassDEP offered enforcement discretion; delay through at least 2027 discussed in 2025 to 2026. |
| New Jersey | 2025 | Contested | MY 2025 start. Waiver rescission leaves enforceability in court. |
| Oregon | 2025 | Paused 2 years | DEQ memo halted ACT enforcement for two years (reported 2025). |
| Washington | 2025 | Contested / rollback bills | Ecology still lists ACT; legislature has seen repeal and delay bills. Verify with Ecology. |
| Vermont | 2026 | Paused through 2026 | Gov. Scott executive order: no action against manufacturers missing ACT sales through 31 Dec 2026. |
| Colorado | 2027 | Not yet started; contested | Original MY 2027. Federal waiver fight precedes the start date. |
| Maryland | 2027 | Enforcement delayed to 2028 | MDE directed to maximize discretion for MY 2027 to 2028. |
| New Mexico | 2027 | Not yet started; contested | Original MY 2027. |
| Rhode Island | 2027 | Not yet started; contested | Original MY 2027. |
EU HDV CO2 Reduction Targets
Fleet-average CO2 cut versus the 2019 baseline: 15% in 2025, 45% in 2030, 65% in 2035, 90% in 2040 (Commission headline path). Urban buses are a separate ZEV-share rule (90% in 2030, 100% in 2035).
Total Addressable Market (All Powertrains)
Total truck market size across all powertrains (the denominator EV share is measured against): US Class 8 is ~290K units/yr, global medium-and-heavy-duty 1.7 to 1.9M.
| Market Segment | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2035 Forecast | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Class 8 Total Units | 309,615 | ~270,000 | ~290,000 | 627,000 (McKinsey) | Fleet Equipment Mag; McKinsey |
| US Fleet Size (Class 8) | - | ~12,200,000 | ~12,200,000 | - | Industry data (Jan 2024: 13,000 EV out of 12.2M) |
| North America M&HD Total | - | ~560,000 | ~578,000 | 627,000 (McKinsey) | McKinsey Road to 2035 |
| China Heavy Truck Total | ~670,000 | ~640,000 | ~680,000 | - | CAAM / industry reports |
| EU Heavy-Duty Truck Registrations | ~310,000 | ~300,000 | ~320,000 | - | ACEA |
| Global Class 8 Equivalent | - | ~1,500,000 | ~1,700,000-1,900,000 | - | Multiple sources; ranges vary |
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