Semi Trucks

Global Electric Truck Sales by Region

Global electric truck sales by region. M&HD = medium-duty + heavy-duty (everything bigger than a delivery van). China dominates with 80%+ of global sales; total reached ~90,000 units in 2024.
Updated at 2026-05-06

OEM Market Share: Class 8 Electric (US)

Who's selling the most electric semis in the US, by OEM (truckmaker: Daimler, Volvo, Tesla). Class 8 = the heaviest US trucks (over 33,000 lbs loaded). Daimler leads ~40-45%, Volvo 25-30%; Tesla is supply-constrained until its 2026 production ramp.
Daimler (Freightliner)40-45%
Volvo Trucks25-30%
PACCAR (Kenworth/Peterbilt)10-15%
Tesla5-10%
Mack (Volvo subsidiary)5%
Traton (MAN/Scania)3%
Other (Nikola, BYD, Lion, Xos)5-10%
Updated at 2026-03-18

BEV/FCEV Cumulative Deliveries by OEM (Annual)

Cumulative BEV/FCEV truck deliveries by OEM through year-end. Tilde values are estimates, exact integers are direct disclosures; PACCAR omitted (no disclosure).
OEM2022202320242025Notes
Tesla Semi~15~100~150~200-300Pilot only. Tesla does not disclose Semi deliveries; figures are trade-press estimates. Mass-production Nevada line first truck off April 2026.
Daimler Truck Group BEV~1,2003,4437,478~11,978Group BEV total includes eCascadia (US), eActros (EU), eCanter (Asia), and electric buses. Daimler does not split by brand. 2025 estimated from 2024 cum plus inferred FY2025 deliveries per Q1 2026 PR comparatives.
Volvo Group BEV (Global)~600~3,000~4,400~6,788Includes Volvo Trucks BEV (VNR Electric, FH/FM Electric) and Mack LR Electric. 2025 Q4 cumulative includes meaningful light-duty Q4 deliveries (1,088); Class-8 only would be lower.
Nikola Tre BEV83158FROZEN at 156FROZEN at 156Cumulative BEV deliveries dropped from 158 in 2023 to 156 in 2024 after a recall returned 78 units. Chapter 11 filed February 2025; series frozen at the bankruptcy date.
Nikola Tre FCEV035~245FROZEN at ~282Hydrogen fuel-cell Tre. 2024 cum through Q3 (235) plus partial Q4 before bankruptcy. Series frozen February 2025.
Xos Stepvans/Powertrains~250~400~700~1,000Class 5-7 stepvans and stripped-chassis powertrains, not Class 8. Clean quarterly disclosure in SEC 8-Ks. 2026-Q1 cumulative ~1,023.
Lion Electric Trucks (only)~30~50FROZEN at ~60FROZEN at ~60Trucks only; excludes Lion's larger school-bus volume. CCAA filed December 2024; series frozen at Q3 2024 disclosure.
PACCAR (Kenworth T680E + Peterbilt 579EV)n/an/an/an/aPACCAR does not disclose unit-level ZEV deliveries. Next-gen T680E/579EV production started 2026. Recommended source for future enrichment: CALSTART ZETI vehicle registrations.
Updated at 2026-05-28

OEM Book-to-Bill Ratio (Quarterly)

OEM book-to-bill ratio by quarter: new orders divided by units sold. Above 100% grows the backlog, below 100% drains it. PACCAR does not disclose orders.
QuarterDaimler Truck B:BVolvo Group B:BPACCAR B:BNotes
Q1 202398%98%n/dBoth OEMs near balance; first quarter of post-COVID order normalization.
Q2 202373%76%n/dBoth OEMs sub-100% as Europe and NA fleet customers pause ordering.
Q3 202377%85%n/dContinued slowdown.
Q4 202377%75%n/dBoth below 80%.
Q1 202496%88%n/dStabilization begins.
Q2 202483%81%n/d
Q3 202483%93%n/d
Q4 202499%104%n/dCrossover: Volvo first above 100% in the cycle.
Q1 2025103%113%n/dBoth above 100%.
Q2 202583%91%n/dTariff-related pause; Daimler TNA segment alone hit 36% B:B (cycle low).
Q3 202595%83%n/d
Q4 2025119%95%n/dDaimler snap-back as tariff clarity + EPA 2027 pre-buy drives orders.
Q1 2026166%132%n/dStrong order acceleration both OEMs. Daimler value reflects continuing-ops basis (Trucks Asia deconsolidated into ARCHION JV); Daimler TNA segment alone hit 201% B:B.
Updated at 2026-05-28

North America Truck Deliveries by OEM (Quarterly)

North America-only quarterly truck deliveries for the three Class-8 majors (Daimler, PACCAR, Volvo), an apples-to-apples cross-OEM comparison.
QuarterPACCAR (Kenworth + Peterbilt)Daimler TNA (Freightliner + Western Star)Volvo NA (Volvo Trucks + Mack)Total (3 OEMs)
Q1 202326,00048,89116,01190,902
Q2 202327,50050,61815,96094,078
Q3 202327,50047,24915,04189,790
Q4 202328,10048,25613,77090,126
Q1 202429,50046,22015,05690,776
Q2 202428,70048,23016,23493,164
Q3 202425,90049,17612,02687,102
Q4 202422,30046,80213,61582,717
Q1 202522,20038,99214,31575,507
Q2 202523,00038,58012,98174,561
Q3 202517,10030,2259,62256,947
Q4 202515,00034,01711,49060,507
Q1 202617,80029,4329,48656,718
Updated at 2026-05-28

Fleet Orders & Reservations

Major fleet pre-orders and deliveries: PepsiCo, Walmart, UPS, Amazon, FedEx, and others placing bets on electric freight.
FleetOEM / SupplierUnits OrderedDelivery StatusYearSource
Werner EnterprisesTesla (Semi)35Ordered2025Bloomberg
WalmartTesla (Semi)130Ordered2024Bloomberg, Walmart sustainability report
SyscoDaimler eCascadia50Ordered2024Daimler Truck, Sysco
FedExBYD Class 875Ordered2024FedEx sustainability report
MaerskVolvo / Einride300Ordered2024Maersk, Einride press release
Biagi BrosTesla (Semi)25In service2024Tesla, Biagi Bros
UPSTesla (Semi)125Ordered2023Reuters, UPS filings
Anheuser-BuschBYD / Nikola800Ordered2023Company press release
DHL Supply ChainDaimler eCascadia100In service2023Daimler Truck, DHL
Schneider NationalDaimler eCascadia50In service2023Schneider, Daimler
PepsiCoTesla (Semi)100In service2022Tesla, PepsiCo disclosures
AmazonVolvo VNR Electric20In service2022Volvo Trucks, Amazon
NFI IndustriesVolvo VNR Electric14deployed2022Volvo Trucks
Updated at 2026-05-06

Revenue Forecasts by Analyst

Wall Street's electric-truck revenue forecasts vary 20x because each analyst defines the market differently. Heavy-duty (Class 7-8 only) forecasts land at $1.9B-$42B; all-truck forecasts at $1.5B-$32B; broader commercial-EV definitions stretch past $89B.

Heavy-Duty Electric Trucks

SourceScopeBase202520262028203020332035CAGR
Global Market InsightsGlobal Heavy-Duty Trucks$16.97B$152.95B
22.2%
DataNext ResearchUS Class 8 Only$1.92B$2.52B$3.3B$5.68B$9.76B$24.76B$42.44B
31.2%
Market Research FutureGlobal Heavy-Duty$0.93B$14.5B
~28%
Grand View ResearchGlobal Heavy-Duty (>26K lbs)$1.93B$2.4B$4.7B$6.45B
15.1%
IMARC Group (China Only)China Electric Trucks3$19.3B
20.6%

All Electric Trucks (All Classes)

SourceScopeBase ($B)End ValueCAGRPeriod
MarketsandMarketsGlobal (All Classes)$5.25B
Fortune Business InsightsGlobal (All Classes)$1.51B
Precedence ResearchGlobal (All Classes)$1.22B$1.6B
Straits ResearchGlobal (All Classes)$1.34B$1.69B
Allied Market ResearchGlobal (All Classes)$0.39B
IMARC GroupGlobal (All Classes)$0.85B
TechnavioGlobal Growth Increment+$20.32B (cumul.)
P&S Intelligence (US Only)US Only (All Classes)$0.73B

Why Some Numbers Are 10× Larger

Broader-market reports include vans, buses, and light commercial vehicles, not just heavy-duty trucks. That explains the order-of-magnitude gap.

SourceScope20242025End ValueCAGRNotes
Mordor IntelligenceGlobal Electric Commercial Vehicles$77.8B$89.37B$166.30B
13.5%
Includes all commercial EVs (vans, trucks, buses)
Mordor IntelligenceElectric Trucks Sub-segment$89.37B$226.75 (2029)B
26.2%
Methodology unclear; likely includes LCVs
Polaris Market ResearchGlobal Electric Trucks$43.81B
~30%
Broad definition; through 2034
Grand View ResearchGlobal Electric Trucks (General)$124.97B
27.1%
2023 base: $22.61B; includes all classes
Updated at 2026-05-06

Unit Volume Forecasts by Region

How many electric trucks analysts expect to be sold annually by region. M&HD = medium- and heavy-duty trucks. IEA projects 500K-1.6M units/yr globally by 2035; China is expected to hit 46% EV share of its truck market by 2030.
SourceRegion2024202520302035Notes
IEA (STEPS Scenario)Global90,000+~180,000 (est.)~500,000-700,000~1,600,000>20% of M&HDV sales by 2035
IEA (APS Scenario)Global90,000+~180,000 (est.)Higher than STEPS~30% sales shareAnnounced Pledges Scenario
IEA (NZE Scenario)Global90,000+~180,000 (est.)Significantly higher>55% sales shareNet Zero Emissions by 2050
BloombergNEFGlobal90,000+ (H1: 89,000 in H1 2025)~4% global shareChina: 46% of truck sales-China 90% of H1 2025 sales
ICCTEurope~24,000~50,000 (est.)290,000-340,000-From 22,500 base (Sept 2025)
ICCTChina230,000+~450,000+ (25% share)--BEV heavy trucks at 29% penetration H1 2025
IEAUnited States<0.1%<0.5%~8%-Uncertain due to emissions standards changes
IEAEurope2.3%3.6% (H1)~33%-25% fleet-wide by 2030
IEAIndia<0.1%<0.5%~2%-Earliest stage among major markets
Frost & SullivanGlobal--6,300,000-41.4% CAGR from 397,146 units (2022)
ACT ResearchNorth America<0.1%<1%25%-Lowest among all truck classes; 50% by 2040
McKinseyEU+US+China--->50%Up to $140B market by 2035
Precedence ResearchGlobal618,170841,460-13,499,830 (2034)36.1% CAGR; light commercial vehicles
Updated at 2026-03-18

EV Penetration Rates (% of New Truck Sales)

Penetration rate = the share of new truck sales that are electric (not the share of the existing fleet). China leads at 25-29% in H1 2025; the US is under 0.5%; Europe sits at 2-3.6% with the Netherlands top at 6.5%.
Region202220232024H1 20252030FSource
China (Heavy Trucks)<3%~5%9-14%25-29%46% (BNEF)ICCT; BloombergNEF
Europe (Heavy Trucks >16t)<0.5%0.9-1.5%2.0-2.3%3.6%25-33% (IEA)ACEA; IEA
Netherlands (EU Leader)6.5%+ACEA H1 2025
United States (Class 8)<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.5%~8% (IEA)IEA; ICCT
Global (M&HD Trucks)<1%~1.5%~2.0%~3-4%>10% (est.)IEA Global EV Outlook 2025
India<0.01%<0.05%<0.1%<0.1%~2% (IEA)IEA
Updated at 2026-05-06

Total Addressable Market (All Powertrains)

Total truck market size across all powertrains (the denominator EV share is measured against): US Class 8 is ~290K units/yr, global medium-and-heavy-duty 1.7 to 1.9M.
Market Segment2022202320242035 ForecastSource
US Class 8 Total Units309,615~270,000~290,000627,000 (McKinsey)Fleet Equipment Mag; McKinsey
US Fleet Size (Class 8)-~12,200,000~12,200,000-Industry data (Jan 2024: 13,000 EV out of 12.2M)
North America M&HD Total-~560,000~578,000627,000 (McKinsey)McKinsey Road to 2035
China Heavy Truck Total~670,000~640,000~680,000-CAAM / industry reports
EU Heavy-Duty Truck Registrations~310,000~300,000~320,000-ACEA
Global Class 8 Equivalent-~1,500,000~1,700,000-1,900,000-Multiple sources; ranges vary
Updated at 2026-03-18

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