Total Cost of Ownership: Diesel vs BEV vs FCEV
Total cost of ownership (TCO) = the all-in cost per mile to operate a truck, combining fuel, maintenance, insurance, and the truck itself amortized over its life — this is what fleets actually compare, not sticker price. BEV (battery) saves $0.23/mi vs diesel ($14K+/yr at 100K miles); FCEV (hydrogen) is the third option.
BEV saves $0.23/mi vs Diesel ($0.14/mi per 100k mi = $14,000/yr). Sources: ATRI 2025, NACFE, RMI.
Cumulative Fuel Savings vs Diesel (5-Year)
BEV (battery electric) fuel savings versus diesel depend almost entirely on the electricity rate per kWh (kilowatt-hour). At $0.08/kWh a fleet saves ~$120K per truck over 5 years; at $0.20/kWh, only $36K — pricing matters more than truck choice.
Assumptions: 120,000 mi/yr | Diesel: $3.50/gal, 7.5 MPG ($0.47/mi) | BEV efficiency: 2.1 kWh/mi
Battery Pack Cost Curve ($/kWh)
Industry battery prices in dollars per kWh (kilowatt-hour — a measure of pack energy). Prices fell 20% in 2024 to $115/kWh and are forecast to hit $65-80 by 2030; commercial-truck packs run 20-40% pricier than passenger-car packs.
EV battery pack cost ($/kWh). Solid lines = historical, dashed = projected. Shaded bands show forecast ranges. Sources: BloombergNEF, ICCT.
Payback Period by Use Case
Payback period = how long fuel and maintenance savings take to recoup the higher purchase price of an electric truck. Last-mile and regional routes break even in 2-4 years (with US IRA tax credits); long-haul depends on MCS (Megawatt Charging System) infrastructure, only arriving from 2026.
Estimated BEV payback period by use case. Bar position shows midpoint of range. Green = fastest payback. Sources: ICCT, NACFE, RMI.