Electric Truck Market Share by Company
The electrification of Class 8 heavy-duty trucking — from Tesla Semi and Freightliner eCascadia to fuel cell alternatives from Nikola and Hyundai. Tracking OEM production ramps, fleet adoption, charging infrastructure buildout, TCO economics, and the regulatory push toward zero-emission freight.
The Semi Trucks sector on Sterling tracks 18 companies.
Key Analyst Consensus & Strategic Insights
TCO Parity Timeline
BEV trucks expected to reach TCO parity with diesel by 2030 in Europe/US; already achieved in China for certain use cases
Source: IEA; McKinsey
China Dominance
China represents ~90% of global electric truck sales (H1 2025); BEV heavy trucks hit ~29% domestic penetration in H1 2025; expected to reach 46% of domestic truck sales by 2030
Source: BloombergNEF; ICCT
US Policy Reversal
Federal 45W commercial EV credit (up to $40k) expired Sep 30 2025 under OBBBA; NEVI charging funds were frozen in early 2025 then restored by federal court order (FY2026 ~$885M); CARB withdrew its Advanced Clean Fleets waiver request and EPA is reconsidering GHG Phase 3, sharply weakening the US demand outlook
Source: OBBBA (2025); FHWA; CARB; EPA
Class 8 Lags Other Classes
ACT Research: Class 8 has lowest ZE adoption predictions among all truck classes due to range/weight constraints
Source: ACT Research
Long-Haul Still Challenging
Long-haul irregular-route battery-electric trucks still 'years off' (ACT Research); FCEV may be better for 500+ mile routes
Source: ACT Research; McKinsey
Truck Industry Value Pool
Combined EU+US truck industry value pools exceed $680B by 2035; ZE trucks capture ~20% ($140B)
Source: McKinsey
Production Growth Outlook
North American truck production growth: 5-7% annually between 2026-2028
Source: McKinsey
Battery Technology
97% of electric trucks globally are battery-electric (vs. FCEV); LFP chemistry dominates in commercial vehicles
Source: BloombergNEF 2025
Section 177 States Impact
Congress revoked CARB's Advanced Clean Trucks waiver in mid-2025 (Congressional Review Act); several Section 177 states (WA, OR, CO, NJ, NY, MA, VT, MD, etc.) have paused or are reworking ZE truck sales mandates amid the legal reversal
Source: ACT Research; CRA (2025)
Goldman Sachs (Limited)
GS forecasts ~25,000 autonomous trucks by 2030 (<1% of fleet); specific electric Class 8 market size not publicly available
Source: Goldman Sachs Insights
Morgan Stanley (Limited)
Specific Class 8 electric truck market forecasts not found in public materials; detailed data behind paywall
Companies in the Semi Trucks sector (18)
Related sectors
Frequently asked questions
What is the Semi Trucks sector?
The electrification of Class 8 heavy-duty trucking — from Tesla Semi and Freightliner eCascadia to fuel cell alternatives from Nikola and Hyundai. Tracking OEM production ramps, fleet adoption, charging infrastructure buildout, TCO economics, and the regulatory push toward zero-emission freight.
Which companies lead the Semi Trucks sector?
Sterling tracks 18 companies in Semi Trucks, led by Tesla (Semi), Daimler Truck (Freightliner), Volvo Trucks (VLVLY), PACCAR (Kenworth/Peterbilt), BYD (Class 8) and Nikola (NKLA).
How can I invest in the Semi Trucks sector?
Publicly traded names in Semi Trucks include Tesla (Semi), Daimler Truck (Freightliner), Volvo Trucks (VLVLY), PACCAR (Kenworth/Peterbilt) and BYD (Class 8). Compare them side by side on Sterling. Data last updated May 29, 2026.
