Electric Truck Market Share by Company

TCO Parity Timeline

BEV trucks expected to reach TCO parity with diesel by 2030 in Europe/US; already achieved in China for certain use cases

Source: IEA; McKinsey

China Dominance

China represents ~90% of global electric truck sales (H1 2025); BEV heavy trucks hit ~29% domestic penetration in H1 2025; expected to reach 46% of domestic truck sales by 2030

Source: BloombergNEF; ICCT

US Policy Reversal

Federal 45W commercial EV credit (up to $40k) expired Sep 30 2025 under OBBBA; NEVI charging funds were frozen in early 2025 then restored by federal court order (FY2026 ~$885M); CARB withdrew its Advanced Clean Fleets waiver request and EPA is reconsidering GHG Phase 3, sharply weakening the US demand outlook

Source: OBBBA (2025); FHWA; CARB; EPA

Class 8 Lags Other Classes

ACT Research: Class 8 has lowest ZE adoption predictions among all truck classes due to range/weight constraints

Source: ACT Research

Long-Haul Still Challenging

Long-haul irregular-route battery-electric trucks still 'years off' (ACT Research); FCEV may be better for 500+ mile routes

Source: ACT Research; McKinsey

Truck Industry Value Pool

Combined EU+US truck industry value pools exceed $680B by 2035; ZE trucks capture ~20% ($140B)

Source: McKinsey

Production Growth Outlook

North American truck production growth: 5-7% annually between 2026-2028

Source: McKinsey

Battery Technology

97% of electric trucks globally are battery-electric (vs. FCEV); LFP chemistry dominates in commercial vehicles

Source: BloombergNEF 2025

Section 177 States Impact

Congress revoked CARB's Advanced Clean Trucks waiver in mid-2025 (Congressional Review Act); several Section 177 states (WA, OR, CO, NJ, NY, MA, VT, MD, etc.) have paused or are reworking ZE truck sales mandates amid the legal reversal

Source: ACT Research; CRA (2025)

Goldman Sachs (Limited)

GS forecasts ~25,000 autonomous trucks by 2030 (<1% of fleet); specific electric Class 8 market size not publicly available

Source: Goldman Sachs Insights

Morgan Stanley (Limited)

Specific Class 8 electric truck market forecasts not found in public materials; detailed data behind paywall