Public Pure-Play Revenue, FY2024 vs FY2025
Annual revenue for the public quantum pure-plays. Growth is high off tiny bases, but the absolute numbers stay small against market caps in the tens of billions, much of the revenue is government and one-off system sales, and reported GAAP profits are largely non-cash warrant gains.
Application Readiness: NISQ Reality vs Fault-Tolerant Promise
For each vertical, what is realistic on today's noisy machines versus what requires fault tolerance that does not yet exist at scale. Finance and logistics have the most credible near-term traction; the rest is mostly research and promise.
| Vertical | Near-term reality (NISQ) | Maturity |
|---|---|---|
| Finance | Measured pilots (HSBC and IBM bond trading, up to 34%) | Emerging |
| Logistics | Deployed annealing solvers, single-digit-percent gains | Emerging |
| Drug discovery | Research benchmarks (mRNA structure, up to 156 qubits) | Early |
| Materials and chemistry | Feasibility studies (batteries, photochemistry) | Early |
| Machine learning | VQE production-style workloads | Speculative |
| Cryptography | The threat, not a purchase (drives PQC spend) | Threat |
Named Enterprise Pilots
Representative enterprise engagements with quantum providers. Nearly all are pilots, research, or benchmarks rather than production. The HSBC and IBM bond-trading result is the strongest measured commercial datapoint so far.
| Enterprise | Result |
|---|---|
| HSBC | First measured quantum value in bond trading (up to 34% better fill prediction) |
| JPMorgan | Portfolio optimization and certified-randomness demonstrations |
| Moderna | mRNA structure simulation at up to 156 qubits |
| Boehringer Ingelheim | mRNA secondary-structure simulation |
| Mercedes-Benz | EV battery chemistry simulation |
| Volkswagen | Route and paint-line scheduling, battery simulation |
| DHL | Courier routing, roughly 5 to 10% efficiency gains |
| BMW, BASF | Pre-competitive quantum-applications consortium |
Quantum-as-a-Service: The Commercial Channel
Cloud access, not on-prem hardware sales, is how nearly all customers reach quantum. The hyperscalers aggregate multiple vendors behind one API, which is why durable exposure to commercial usage runs through the large-cap cloud providers.
| Platform | Ticker |
|---|---|
| IBM Quantum | IBM |
| AWS Braket | AMZN |
| Azure Quantum | MSFT |
| Google Cloud | GOOGL |
| CUDA-Q and NVQLink | NVDA |