Quantum
Quantum Computing Applications
Public Pure-Play Revenue, FY2024 vs FY2025
Annual revenue for the public quantum pure-plays. Growth is high off tiny bases, and the absolute numbers stay small against market caps in the tens of billions. Mix varies by name: IonQ said more than 60 percent of FY2025 was commercial. Reported GAAP profits in this group are largely non-cash warrant gains.
Application Readiness: NISQ Reality vs Fault-Tolerant Promise
For each vertical, what is realistic on today's noisy machines versus what requires fault tolerance that does not yet exist at scale. Finance and logistics have the most credible near-term traction; the rest is mostly research and promise.
| Vertical | Near-term reality (NISQ) | Maturity |
|---|---|---|
| Finance | Measured pilots (HSBC and IBM bond trading, up to 34%) | Emerging |
| Logistics | Deployed annealing solvers, single-digit-percent gains | Emerging |
| Drug discovery | Research benchmarks (mRNA structure, up to 156 qubits) | Early |
| Materials and chemistry | Feasibility studies (batteries, photochemistry) | Early |
| Machine learning | VQE production-style workloads | Speculative |
| Cryptography | The threat, not a purchase (drives PQC spend) | Threat |
Named Enterprise Pilots
Representative enterprise engagements with quantum providers. Nearly all are pilots, research, or benchmarks rather than production. The HSBC and IBM bond-trading result is the strongest measured commercial datapoint so far.
| Enterprise | Result |
|---|---|
| HSBC | First measured quantum value in bond trading (up to 34% better fill prediction) |
| JPMorgan | Portfolio optimization and certified-randomness demonstrations |
| Moderna | mRNA structure simulation at up to 156 qubits |
| Boehringer Ingelheim | mRNA secondary-structure simulation |
| Mercedes-Benz | EV battery chemistry simulation |
| Volkswagen | Route and paint-line scheduling, battery simulation |
| DHL | Courier routing, roughly 5 to 10% efficiency gains |
| BMW, BASF | Pre-competitive quantum-applications consortium |
Quantum-as-a-Service: The Commercial Channel
Cloud access, not on-prem hardware sales, is how nearly all customers reach quantum. The hyperscalers aggregate multiple vendors behind one API, which is why durable exposure to commercial usage runs through the large-cap cloud providers.
| Platform | Ticker |
|---|---|
| IBM Quantum | IBM |
| AWS Braket | AMZN |
| Azure Quantum | MSFT |
| Google Cloud | GOOGL |
| CUDA-Q and NVQLink | NVDA |
Measured Finance Results (and What They Are Not)
The HSBC and IBM bond-trading study is the only figure here with a quantified improvement on production-scale data. It is a research trial, not live production trading. Other banks have research collaborations without a comparable published percentage.
| Firm | Metric |
|---|---|
| HSBC | Up to 34% improvement in predicting fill probability on European corporate-bond RFQ data versus classical-only models used in the study. |
| JPMorgan | No comparable published percentage. Public descriptions cover portfolio-optimization research and certified-randomness demonstrations. |
IonQ FY2025 Revenue Mix (Disclosed Floor)
IonQ is the revenue leader among listed hardware pure-plays and the one that discloses a commercial split. It said more than 60 percent of FY2025 revenue was commercial. The chart uses 60 percent as a floor. The remainder includes government and other; an exact government percentage is not broken out.
The Classical Bar Quantum Has to Clear
Cases where classical methods matched or beat a published quantum experiment, plus Google's 2025 Quantum Echoes claim, which had not been independently reproduced. Production-grade advantage remains a high bar because classical algorithms keep moving.
| Case | Quantum claim |
|---|---|
| IBM Eagle kicked Ising (127 qubits) | Nature 2023: noisy-hardware simulation framed as beyond brute-force classical |
| Sycamore random-circuit sampling | Google 2019 supremacy-style claim |
| Quantum Echoes (OTOC) on Willow | Google, October 2025: 13,000 times faster than Frontier on a 65-qubit OTOC task (Nature) |
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