Regulated Utilities

Utility Generation Shift

US Generation Mix Over Time

Share of US generation by fuel since 2001: gas and wind ate coal's half-share, solar is the fastest-growing slice this decade, and nuclear holds near a fifth throughout.

US Solar and Coal Generation

Volumes, not shares: utility-scale solar climbed from 36 TWh in 2016 to 296 TWh in 2025, while coal fell from 1,239 TWh to 652 TWh in 2024 and then bounced to 737 TWh in 2025 as load growth pulled idle coal back on. 2025 is preliminary.

Capacity Additions and Retirements

What actually gets built: solar and battery storage dominate additions while the coal retirement wave slowed sharply in 2024, the clearest sign that load growth changed the calculus.

The Coal Wind-Down Meets Load Growth

US coal capacity halved since 2011, but the 2030 endpoint is now genuinely uncertain: retirement schedules are slipping as utilities weigh reliability, capacity prices, and the EPA rule whiplash.

Documented delay examples

Georgia Power (SO)

2023 IRP update kept Plant Bowen coal units running years beyond the schedule implied by the 2022 plan, citing data-center-driven load growth

Alliant Energy (LNT)

Edgewater and Columbia retirement dates in Wisconsin slipped multiple times before gas conversion plans replaced closure

NiSource (NI)

Kept two Schahfer units available beyond the original retirement date during the transition to renewables in Indiana

FirstEnergy (FE)

West Virginia coal plants extended in state proceedings that prioritized fuel security over the retirement economics

Federal actions

2025 DOE emergency orders kept individual coal and oil units online past planned retirement in MISO and PJM, citing resource adequacy

Gas Turbine and Grid Equipment Bottlenecks

The supply chain gates the buildout: turbine slots quoted into 2029 to 2031, transformer lead times of 3 to 5 years, and EPC labor as binding as equipment. Resource plans bend toward whatever connects faster.

Equipment	Suppliers	Reported signal	Why it matters
Heavy-duty gas turbines	GE Vernova	Slot reservations sold out roughly through 2028, with new orders quoted into the 2029 to 2031 delivery window	New gas capacity ordered today arrives at the end of the decade
Heavy-duty gas turbines	Siemens Energy	Record group backlog above 100 billion euros with gas services and grid technologies sold out years ahead	Pricing power has shifted from buyers to OEMs
Heavy-duty gas turbines	Mitsubishi Power	Advanced-class turbine slots substantially committed through the late 2020s on US and Asian orders	Three-OEM oligopoly with no spare near-term capacity
Large power transformers	Hitachi Energy, Siemens Energy, others	Reported lead times of roughly 3 to 5 years, up from about 1 year pre-2020	Transmission and interconnection projects queue behind equipment, not permits
HV switchgear and cable	Eaton, Hubbell, Prysmian, Southwire	Extended lead times and record backlogs reported across 2024 to 2025 earnings cycles	Distribution buildout costs escalate through the capex plans in this sector
EPC labor	Quanta, MasTec, MYR and utility crews	Lineworker and substation engineering capacity repeatedly flagged as binding alongside equipment	Even funded, approved projects execute on multi-year timelines

Resource Adequacy Risk by Region

NERC's Long-Term Reliability Assessment designations: MISO flagged high risk, with elevated-risk designations across most of the country as retirements, load growth, and weather-dependent additions collide.

MISO (Midwest)High

Coal retirements outpacing accredited replacement capacity while demand forecasts climb

PJM (Mid-Atlantic)Elevated

Data-center load growth against a thin new-build pipeline; capacity prices already at the cap

ERCOT (Texas)Elevated

Fastest large-load growth in the country; solar and storage heavy additions carry weather-dependent accreditation

SPP (Plains)Elevated

Wind-heavy fleet with tightening winter margins and growing load

ISO-NE (New England)Elevated

Winter gas constraints and retiring oil and gas units in a fuel-limited region

WECC Southwest and CaliforniaElevated

Extreme-heat events and evening ramps stress solar-heavy portfolios

Southeast (SERC)Normal to Elevated

Vertically integrated planning keeps margins healthier, but data-center growth is eroding surpluses

NYISO (New York)Elevated

Downstate reliability needs as fossil peakers retire ahead of transmission and new supply

Utility-Scale Battery Storage Buildout

From 2 GW to 26 GW in four years, with EIA's planned trajectory near 44 GW through 2025. Storage is the fastest-to-connect resource while gas turbines are sold out, making it the default peaker.

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