Utility Generation Shift
US Generation Mix Over Time
Share of US generation by fuel since 2001: gas and wind ate coal's half-share, solar is the fastest-growing slice this decade, and nuclear holds near a fifth throughout.
US Solar and Coal Generation
Volumes, not shares: utility-scale solar climbed from 36 TWh in 2016 to 296 TWh in 2025, while coal fell from 1,239 TWh to 652 TWh in 2024 and then bounced to 737 TWh in 2025 as load growth pulled idle coal back on. 2025 is preliminary.
Capacity Additions and Retirements
What actually gets built: solar and battery storage dominate additions while the coal retirement wave slowed sharply in 2024, the clearest sign that load growth changed the calculus.
The Coal Wind-Down Meets Load Growth
US coal capacity halved since 2011, but the 2030 endpoint is now genuinely uncertain: retirement schedules are slipping as utilities weigh reliability, capacity prices, and the EPA rule whiplash.
Documented delay examples
2023 IRP update kept Plant Bowen coal units running years beyond the schedule implied by the 2022 plan, citing data-center-driven load growth
Edgewater and Columbia retirement dates in Wisconsin slipped multiple times before gas conversion plans replaced closure
Kept two Schahfer units available beyond the original retirement date during the transition to renewables in Indiana
West Virginia coal plants extended in state proceedings that prioritized fuel security over the retirement economics
2025 DOE emergency orders kept individual coal and oil units online past planned retirement in MISO and PJM, citing resource adequacy
Gas Turbine and Grid Equipment Bottlenecks
The supply chain gates the buildout: turbine slots quoted into 2029 to 2031, transformer lead times of 3 to 5 years, and EPC labor as binding as equipment. Resource plans bend toward whatever connects faster.
| Equipment | Reported signal |
|---|---|
| Heavy-duty gas turbines | Slot reservations sold out roughly through 2028, with new orders quoted into the 2029 to 2031 delivery window |
| Heavy-duty gas turbines (GW) | Q2 2026: gas power equipment backlog plus slot reservation agreements grew from 100 GW to 116 GW (backlog 44 to 53 GW, slot reservations 56 to 63 GW). 20 GW of new contracts were signed in the quarter and 3 GW shipped; the company now expects at least 125 GW by year-end 2026 |
| Heavy-duty gas turbines | Record group backlog above 100 billion euros with gas services and grid technologies sold out years ahead |
| Heavy-duty gas turbines (GW) | Q3 FY2026 (quarter to 30 June 2026): Gas Services booked 15 GW of new orders (12 GW converted from slot reservation agreements) and shipped 6 GW; firm backlog is 69 GW plus 26 GW of slot reservation agreements |
| Heavy-duty gas turbines | Advanced-class turbine slots substantially committed through the late 2020s on US and Asian orders |
| Heavy-duty gas turbines (GW) | Q1 FY2026 (quarter to 30 June 2026): large-frame gas turbine contract backlog of 80 units (35 GW), up from 74 units (33 GW) at FY2025 year-end and 53 units (23 GW) a year earlier. 10 units (4 GW) were ordered in the quarter, four for the US and six for Japan |
| Large power transformers | Reported lead times of roughly 3 to 5 years, up from about 1 year pre-2020 |
| HV switchgear and cable | Extended lead times and record backlogs reported across 2024 to 2025 earnings cycles |
| EPC labor | Lineworker and substation engineering capacity repeatedly flagged as binding alongside equipment |
Resource Adequacy Risk by Region
NERC's 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment designations: MISO, PJM, ERCOT and the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin reach high risk within five years, with elevated-risk designations in SPP, New England, New York and SERC-East as retirements, load growth, and weather-dependent additions collide.
Normal in 2026, Elevated in 2027, High from winter 2028 as demand forecasts outrun planned resources and retirements; MISO's expedited ERAS additions are not in the model and would eliminate the reserve shortfall if they arrive as planned
Elevated in 2026 to 2028, High from 2029: data-center load growth against generator retirements and project delays, with the reserve margin projected to fall below its requirement in 2029
Elevated in 2026 to 2028, High from 2029 as large-load growth continues (summer peak from 94.7 GW in 2026 to 154.1 GW in 2035); new authority to curtail large loads in emergencies eased the near-term outlook
Elevated from 2026: demand forecasts outpace resource additions and reserve margins fall, with shortfall risk in low-wind, high-outage conditions
Normal in 2026 to 2028, Elevated from 2029: fast winter demand growth and winter natural gas pipeline limits pose shortfall risk in extreme, long cold spells
Northwest is Normal until 2029, then High as data-center load growth outpaces additions (peak up 6.6 GW, 19 percent, in ten years); Basin's 2029 simulation also exceeds the High criteria on summer evening shortfalls
Only SERC-East is rated Elevated (from 2027) as coal retirements outrun planned additions; the other SERC areas are Normal
Elevated from 2026: planned peaker retirements create localized New York City and Long Island adequacy needs identified in NYISO's 2025 Q3 STAR
Utility-Scale Battery Storage Buildout
From 2 GW to 26 GW in four years, with EIA's planned trajectory near 44 GW through 2025. Storage is the fastest-to-connect resource while gas turbines are sold out, making it the default peaker.