Regulated Utilities

Utility Regional Landscape

Where the Load Growth Lands

Five-year peak demand growth by RTO. ERCOT and PJM carry the steepest curves, the Southeast follows, and the mature Northeast grows slowly. Percentages are modeled comparisons, so the ordering is more reliable than the values.

Retail Sales Growth by Census Division

Delivered kilowatt-hours, 2024 versus 2023. Mountain led at 4.4 percent; the South Atlantic and East South Central followed. New England was nearly flat. These are actual sales, not the peak-demand forecasts above.

PJM Capacity Auction Prices

What scarcity did to the price signal: from a 28.92 dollar low for 2024/25 to 269.92 dollars the next year, then a clear at the administrative price cap. The market repriced reserve margins in two auctions.

The ERCOT Large-Load Queue

Texas peaked near 85.6 GW while large-load interconnection requests total roughly 130 GW. The gap is the sector's clearest case of speculative and duplicated demand, and the reason SB 6 added disclosure rules.

Why the queue overstates reality

The same data-center project often files interconnection requests with multiple utilities and RTOs, so aggregate queues double count.

SB 6 (enacted June 2025) requires large-load customers to disclose duplicate requests elsewhere and accept curtailment obligations, partly to deflate this number.

ERCOT's own planning scenarios spread realistic outcomes across a wide band well below the raw queue total.

MISO Planning Resource Auction Prices

The Midwest's capacity market: summer cleared at $30 in 2024/25, $666.50 in 2025/26, then $424.30 in 2026/27 for North/Central. Same scarcity signal as PJM, different operator and a seasonal construct.

Regulated vs Restructured States

Which market model governs where. Vertically integrated utilities earn on generation through distribution; restructured utilities earn on wires only; Texas runs competitive retail with regulated delivery.

Vertically integrated

One commission regulates generation, transmission, and distribution together. Utilities earn on every layer, which means the most rate base per unit of new load, plus generation construction risk.

Where: Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, the Carolinas, Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Indiana, Missouri, Kansas, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii
Roster utilities: Southern (SO), Duke (DUK), Entergy (ETR), Xcel (XEL), WEC, Ameren (AEE), Evergy (EVRG), Pinnacle West (PNW), Alliant (LNT), Hawaiian Electric (HE)

Restructured (wires only)

Generation was divested in the late 1990s and 2000s. The utility delivers power and earns on poles and wires; customers buy energy from competitive suppliers. Lower risk, no fuel exposure, and now a direct beneficiary of interconnection spend.

Where: Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Ohio, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, DC
Roster utilities: Exelon (EXC), Consolidated Edison (ED), Eversource (ES), FirstEnergy (FE), PPL, PSEG (PEG), National Grid (NGG)

Texas (ERCOT competitive)

The most competitive US retail market, inside a grid with minimal federal jurisdiction. Wires companies earn regulated returns on delivery; energy and capacity are fully market based, with no capacity market at all.

Where: Most of Texas
Roster utilities: Oncor (majority owned by Sempra, SRE), CenterPoint (CNP), AEP Texas

Hybrid and mixed

States where restructuring stalled midway, or where a utility operates integrated in one state and wires-only in another. Michigan caps retail choice at 10 percent of load; California utilities own some generation while community choice aggregators serve much of the retail load.

Where: Michigan, California, Oregon, Virginia (limited choice), Kentucky and Pennsylvania for a single multi-state utility
Roster utilities: DTE, CMS, PG&E (PCG), Edison International (EIX), Sempra (SRE), Dominion (D), PPL

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