Utility Regional Landscape
Where the Load Growth Lands
Five-year peak demand growth by RTO. ERCOT and PJM carry the steepest curves, the Southeast follows, and the mature Northeast grows slowly. Percentages are modeled comparisons, so the ordering is more reliable than the values.
Retail Sales Growth by Census Division
Delivered kilowatt-hours, 2025 versus 2024. West South Central led at 4.9 percent on Texas; East North Central and West North Central followed, and Pacific Contiguous was the only division to fall. These are actual sales, not the peak-demand forecasts above.
PJM Capacity Auction Prices
What scarcity did to the price signal: from a 28.92 dollar low for 2024/25 to 269.92 dollars the next year, then clears at the administrative price cap in 2026/27, 2027/28 and 2028/29 (329.17, 333.44 and 325.00 dollars). The last two auctions cleared a 14.4 percent reserve margin against a 20 percent target.
The ERCOT Large-Load Queue
Texas set a new peak of about 91 GW in July 2026 while ERCOT is tracking about 474 GW of large-load interconnection requests (as of June 2026). The gap is the sector's clearest case of speculative and duplicated demand, and the reason SB 6 added disclosure rules.
Why the queue overstates reality
The same data-center project often files interconnection requests with multiple utilities and RTOs, so aggregate queues double count.
SB 6 (enacted June 2025) requires large-load customers to disclose duplicate requests elsewhere and accept curtailment obligations, partly to deflate this number.
ERCOT's own planning scenarios spread realistic outcomes across a wide band well below the raw queue total.
MISO Planning Resource Auction Prices
The Midwest's capacity market: summer cleared at $30 in 2024/25, $666.50 in 2025/26, then $424.30 in 2026/27 for North/Central. Same scarcity signal as PJM, different operator and a seasonal construct.
Regulated vs Restructured States
Which market model governs where. Vertically integrated utilities earn on generation through distribution; restructured utilities earn on wires only; Texas runs competitive retail with regulated delivery.
Vertically integrated
One commission regulates generation, transmission, and distribution together. Utilities earn on every layer, which means the most rate base per unit of new load, plus generation construction risk.
- Where
- Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, the Carolinas, Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Indiana, Missouri, Kansas, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii
- Roster utilities
- Southern (SO), Duke (DUK), Entergy (ETR), Xcel (XEL), WEC, Ameren (AEE), Evergy (EVRG), Pinnacle West (PNW), Alliant (LNT), Hawaiian Electric (HE)
Restructured (wires only)
Generation was divested in the late 1990s and 2000s. The utility delivers power and earns on poles and wires; customers buy energy from competitive suppliers. Lower risk, no fuel exposure, and now a direct beneficiary of interconnection spend.
- Where
- Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Ohio, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, DC
- Roster utilities
- Exelon (EXC), Consolidated Edison (ED), Eversource (ES), FirstEnergy (FE), PPL, PSEG (PEG), National Grid (NGG)
Texas (ERCOT competitive)
The most competitive US retail market, inside a grid with minimal federal jurisdiction. Wires companies earn regulated returns on delivery; energy and capacity are fully market based, with no capacity market at all.
- Where
- Most of Texas
- Roster utilities
- Oncor (majority owned by Sempra, SRE), CenterPoint (CNP), AEP Texas
Hybrid and mixed
States where restructuring stalled midway, or where a utility operates integrated in one state and wires-only in another. Michigan caps retail choice at 10 percent of load; California utilities own some generation while community choice aggregators serve much of the retail load.
- Where
- Michigan, California, Oregon, Virginia (limited choice), Kentucky and Pennsylvania for a single multi-state utility
- Roster utilities
- DTE, CMS, PG&E (PCG), Edison International (EIX), Sempra (SRE), Dominion (D), PPL