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RocheSwiss diversified pharma. Carmot acquisition (December 2023, $2.7B) brought CT-388 (about 23% placebo-adjusted weight loss at 48 weeks Phase 2), CT-996 oral, and CT-868. Zealand licensing deal ($1.65B) added petrelinitide amylin program.
| Asset / Mechanism | Phase / Readout Window | Key Endpoint Result |
|---|---|---|
| CT-388 Phase 1a (single ascending dose, healthy) | Phase 1a; 2022-2023 readouts (Carmot legacy) | Injectable dual GLP-1/GIP agonist (similar mechanism to tirzepatide); demonstrated dose-related pharmacokinetics + weight reduction; supported Phase 1b advancement |
| CT-388 Phase 1 (obesity, 24 weeks) | Phase 1; May 2024 topline | 18.8% placebo-adjusted mean weight loss at 24 weeks at the high dose (very strong Phase 1 incretin result); GI tolerability comparable to other dual GLP-1/GIP agonists; supports Phase 3 advancement. The readout re-rated Roche's obesity narrative as a credible contender |
| CT-388 Phase 2 (obesity dose-titration) | Phase 2; topline H2 2025 to H1 2026 | Larger cohort + extended dose-titration optimization; primary endpoint weight loss at 36-48 weeks; supports Phase 3 dose selection |
| CT-388 Phase 3 obesity registrational | Phase 3; initiated mid-2025 | Pivotal Phase 3 program for FDA approval; target approval 2028-2029; commercial launch target 2029 |
| CT-388 Phase 2 (T2D) | Phase 2; topline 2026 | Parallel T2D program for separate label; supports cardiovascular outcomes labeling claim |
| CT-996 Phase 1 (oral small-molecule GLP-1 RA, 4 weeks) | Phase 1; July 2024 topline | 7.3% total weight loss at 4 weeks (placebo -1.2%; 6.1% placebo-adjusted) at the high dose; first oral small-molecule GLP-1 RA to show meaningful Phase 1 weight loss in this timeframe; positions Roche as #3 in the oral race after LLY orforglipron + GPCR aleniglipron |
| CT-996 Phase 2 (obesity) | Phase 2; readout H2 2025 to H1 2026 | Extended dosing + larger cohort to confirm Phase 1 efficacy signal + tolerability profile; competitive readout vs LLY orforglipron + GPCR aleniglipron data |
| CT-868 Phase 2 (type 1 diabetes, injectable dual GLP-1/GIP) | Phase 2; ongoing | Once-daily subcutaneous injectable dual GLP-1/GIP agonist developed for type 1 diabetes patients with overweight or obesity; secondary asset from the Carmot platform |
| Deal economics (signed Dec 2023) | Closed Q1 2024 | Roche paid $2.7B upfront + up to $400M in milestone payments to acquire Carmot Therapeutics; three named assets transferred (CT-388, CT-996, CT-868) plus discovery platform; pre-deal Carmot enterprise value was estimated <$1B (private) |
| Editorial. Why this matters for Roche | Strategic context | The Carmot acquisition is Roche's primary obesity-market re-entry. CT-388's Phase 1b 18.8% number positions it as one of the most-efficacious incretins in Phase 2/3 development, comparable to tirzepatide. The strategic question: does Roche reach commercial launch ahead of LLY's next-generation retatrutide + amylin combinations, or does the 2028-2029 launch window leave Roche as a fast-follower in a market that's by then mature with 4-5 commercial-stage agents (LLY tirzepatide + retatrutide, NVO semaglutide + CagriSema, AMGN MariTide, Roche CT-388)? |
2023-2025
2022-2026