GLP-1
Track the global GLP-1 sector. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk dominate class revenue while late-stage challengers race oral, monthly, and combination assets to market. The investment story spans peptide CDMOs, autoinjector device makers, payers reshaping access (Medicare Part D, the CMS GLP-1 Bridge, IRA negotiation), and cross-sector adjacencies (CPG, life insurance, MASH).
Updated 2026-05-21
GLP-1 Sector at a Glance
Eight headline metrics framing the GLP-1 sector: market size, patient base, pivotal trial results, access mechanisms, and M&A. Each tile links a primary source.
2026E US class sales
~$80B
Mounjaro $25.8B + Zepbound $19.7B + Ozempic $19.5B + Wegovy $15.3B per IQVIA Outlook for Obesity 2026
IQVIA
2030 class sales (projection)
~$150B
Annualized run rate by end of decade per IQVIA and consensus consulting estimates
IQVIA / consensus
US adults on GLP-1
~12M
Across T2D, obesity, CV, OSA, and CKD indications in 2026
IQVIA / Circana
SELECT MACE reduction
20%
Semaglutide 2.4mg vs placebo in non-diabetic CVD patients (NEJM 2023, 17,500 patients, 39.8 month follow-up)
NEJM SELECT trial
Tirzepatide max weight loss
22%
Maximum placebo-adjusted weight loss in pivotal SURMOUNT-1 obesity trial
NEJM SURMOUNT-1
CMS GLP-1 Bridge copay
$50/mo
July 1, 2026 through December 31, 2027 for eligible Medicare beneficiaries with covered CV indication
CMS
IRA negotiated price effective
Jan 2027
Semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus) maximum fair price for Medicare Part D
CMS
Obesity M&A 2023 to 2025
>$50B
Roche-Carmot $2.7B (Dec 2023), Novo Holdings-Catalent $16.5B (Feb 2024), Pfizer-Metsera up to $10B (Nov 2025), Novo-Akero $5.2B (late 2025), Roche-Zealand petrelinitide $1.65B (2024)
Aggregated deal disclosures
Updated at May 2026
Global GLP-1 Class Sales by Brand
Annual brand-level revenue (USD billions) across the major Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly GLP-1 drugs, from ~$2B in 2019 to ~$84B projected for 2026E.
Updated at 2026-05-21
US Prescription Volume by Molecule
Quarterly US retail and specialty script volume by molecule, 2022 through Q1 2026, showing Mounjaro and Zepbound overtaking Ozempic and Wegovy.
Updated at 2026-05-22
Class Sales Forecast by Indication (2026 to 2030)
Global GLP-1 class sales (USD billions) projected to 2030, broken out by primary indication. T2D and obesity dominate; cardiovascular (MACE) grows fastest.
Updated at 2026-05-22
Public-Equity Universe by Archetype
All 16 public-equity roster members plus Boehringer Ingelheim (private), grouped into six archetypes with different unit economics and risk profiles.
Incumbents
The two-player market. Captured the vast majority of class revenue in 2025.
Eli Lilly$LLYUS
Novo Nordisk$NVODK
Late-stage challengers
Diversified pharma entering through M&A or licensing. Different unit economics from incumbents.
Pfizer$PFEUS
Amgen$AMGNUS
Roche$RHHBYCH
AstraZeneca$AZNUK
Mid- and small-cap pure-plays
High-upside, binary readouts. M&A-prone given big-pharma demand for assets.
Viking Therapeutics$VKTXUS
Structure Therapeutics$GPCRUS
Altimmune$ALTUS
Zealand Pharma$ZEAL.CODK
Distribution and MASH-adjacent
Telehealth distribution channel plus MASH-adjacent therapeutics that overlap with GLP-1 in the same disease.
Hims & Hers Health$HIMSUS
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals$MDGLUS
Akero Therapeutics$AKROUS
Supply chain and device
Pure-play peptide CDMO (Bachem) and autoinjector pen supplier (Ypsomed).
Bachem$BANB.SWCH
Ypsomed$YPSN.SWCH
International and private
Innovent: first dual GCG/GLP-1 approved globally (Lilly partnership). Boehringer Ingelheim: largest private GLP-1 player (survodutide Phase 3 with Zealand).
Innovent Biologics$1801.HKCN
Boehringer IngelheimprivateDE
Updated at 2026-05-31
End-to-End Supply Chain
The six layers of the GLP-1 supply chain: peptide API, fill-finish, device assembly, brand, channel, and patient indication. Bar fill shows each node's relative weight.
1
Peptide API
Bachem
PolyPeptide
CordenPharma
Novo in-house
Lilly in-house
2
Fill-finish CDMO
Catalent (Novo Holdings)
Lilly fill-finish sites
Lonza
Recipharm
3
Device assembly
Ypsomed
Phillips-Medisize
West Pharma
Becton Dickinson
4
Brand
Mounjaro
Zepbound
Ozempic
Wegovy
Rybelsus
5
Channel
Retail pharmacy
Specialty pharmacy
Direct manufacturer
Telehealth (Hims, Ro)
6
Patient indication
T2D
Obesity
Cardiovascular (MACE)
OSA, CKD, MASH
Pediatric
Updated at 2026-05-22
Catalyst Calendar (Next 18 Months)
The eight most material GLP-1 catalysts through end-2027: regulatory decisions, trial readouts, access programs, rulemaking, and pricing. A compact subset of the full Pipeline calendar.
- 2026-Q2FDA ApprovalOrforglipron FDA decisionEli Lilly (LLY)First oral non-peptide GLP-1 RA. ATTAIN-1: 12.4% weight loss at 72 weeks (36 mg dose).
- 2026-H1Label ExpansionTirzepatide MACE label expansionEli Lilly (LLY)Triggers Medicare Part D coverage for tirzepatide CV indication.
- 2026-06-29RulemakingFDA 503B bulk substances comment period closesFDAEffectively ends large-scale compounding for semaglutide, tirzepatide, liraglutide.
- 2026-07-01Access ProgramCMS GLP-1 Bridge launchesCMS$50 per month copay for eligible Medicare beneficiaries through Dec 31, 2027.
- 2026-latePivotal ReadoutAmgen MariTide Phase 3 readoutAmgen (AMGN)Differentiated antibody-peptide conjugate, monthly dosing. Phase 3 readout expected late 2026; BLA filing late 2026 to early 2027.
- 2026-H2FDA ApprovalCagriSema FDA decisionNovo Nordisk (NVO)Cagrilintide + semaglutide combo. About 22.7% mean weight loss in Phase 3a.
- 2026Trial ReadoutPemvidutide MASH IMPACT Phase 2b dataAltimmune (ALT)MASH-first GLP-1 / glucagon dual agonist. Phase 2b IMPACT 48-week data; pivotal Phase 3 (PERFORMA) planned for 2026.
- 2027-01-01PricingIRA negotiated semaglutide price effectiveCMSMaximum fair price for Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus in Medicare Part D.
Updated at 2026-05-31