GLP-1

Eight headline metrics that frame the GLP-1 sector as of May 2026: market size today (~$80B class sales) and the 2030 trajectory (~$150B), the patient base (~12M US users), the two pivotal clinical signals (SELECT 20% MACE reduction, SURMOUNT-1 22% max weight loss), the two access mechanisms reshaping reimbursement (CMS GLP-1 Bridge at $50/mo July 2026 to Dec 2027, IRA-negotiated semaglutide price effective January 2027), and the consolidation backdrop (more than $50B in obesity biotech M&A 2023 to 2025). Each tile resolves to a published primary source.

Global brand-level GLP-1 class sales, 2019 to 2026E (USD billions). The class went from ~$2B (Ozempic alone) in 2019 to a projected ~$84B in 2026E across the five primary brands. The 2023 inflection reflects Wegovy and Zepbound obesity-indication uptake; the 2024 acceleration is Lilly capacity coming online; the 2025-2026 trajectory is driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound overtaking Ozempic in absolute revenue. Historical figures from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly annual filings; 2025 reflects full-year estimates and 2026E reflects IQVIA Outlook for Obesity 2026 projections (marked as projections in the tooltip).

Quarterly US retail and specialty prescription volume by molecule, 2022 through Q1 2026 (millions of scripts per quarter, IQVIA-derived). The shape of the chart: Mounjaro overtakes Ozempic in 2025-Q3 on T2D share; Zepbound surpasses Wegovy in 2025-Q2 on obesity share; Rybelsus oral semaglutide remains a small but steady contributor. Compounded volume during the 2023 to 2025 shortage is not included (those moved through non-traditional channels not captured in NPA retail data).

Annual global GLP-1 class sales forecast 2026 to 2030 (USD billions), decomposed by primary indication. T2D and obesity remain the bulk through 2030; cardiovascular (MACE) grows fastest as the Wegovy CV approval (March 2024), tirzepatide MACE label expansion (expected H1 2026), and CMS Bridge program (July 2026) expand the funded patient pool. CKD, MASH, OSA, and pediatric indications scale from a smaller base but compound rapidly through 2030. Source: IQVIA Outlook for Obesity 2026 and IQVIA 2026-to-2030 outlook; modeled indication splits.

All 16 public-equity roster members plus Boehringer Ingelheim (private, survodutide Phase 3 with Zealand), grouped by archetype. Each archetype has different unit economics, valuation discipline, and binary risk profile. The right comparison for any holding is rarely 'LLY versus NVO' in absolute terms; it is 'who captures what share of which patient pool given the access regime, pipeline differentiation, and IP runway.'

Six-layer GLP-1 supply chain stack. Peptide API capacity was the binding constraint 2023 to 2024; fill-finish is the principal post-2024 bottleneck, easing through 2026 to 2028 as Catalent (Novo Holdings) Bloomington/Anagni/Brussels, Lilly Concord/RTP/Pleasant Prairie/Lebanon, and CordenPharma Colorado/Muttenz expansions come online. Autoinjector pen supply (Ypsomed, Phillips-Medisize) is the structural device-side chokepoint. Patient-indication weights reflect approximate 2026 mix; T2D remains the largest indication by patient count, obesity the largest by value growth.

1. 2026-Q2FDA Approval

   Orforglipron FDA decision

   Eli Lilly (LLY)

   First oral non-peptide GLP-1 RA. ATTAIN-1: 11.2% weight loss at 72 weeks.
2. 2026-H1Label Expansion

   Tirzepatide MACE label expansion

   Eli Lilly (LLY)

   Triggers Medicare Part D coverage for tirzepatide CV indication.
3. 2026-06-29Rulemaking

   FDA 503A bulk substances comment period closes

   FDA

   Effectively ends large-scale compounding for semaglutide, tirzepatide, liraglutide.
4. 2026-07-01Access Program

   CMS GLP-1 Bridge launches

   CMS

   $50 per month copay for eligible Medicare beneficiaries through Dec 31, 2027.
5. 2026-latePivotal Readout

   Amgen MariTide Phase 3 readout

   Amgen (AMGN)

   Differentiated antibody-peptide conjugate, monthly dosing. BLA late 2026 to early 2027.
6. 2026-H2FDA Approval

   CagriSema FDA decision

   Novo Nordisk (NVO)

   Cagrilintide + semaglutide combo. About 22.7% mean weight loss in Phase 3a.
7. 2026Pivotal Readout

   Pemvidutide MASH IMPACT pivotal data

   Altimmune (ALT)

   MASH-first GLP-1 / glucagon dual agonist. Differentiates from obesity-focused peers.
8. 2027-01-01Pricing

   IRA negotiated semaglutide price effective

   CMS

   Maximum fair price for Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus in Medicare Part D.

The eight most material catalysts for the GLP-1 sector through end of 2027. Compact subset of the full Pipeline-tab calendar curated for the Overview tab. Four categories: regulatory decisions (orforglipron approval Q2 2026, CagriSema decision late 2026, tirzepatide MACE label expansion H1 2026), pivotal trial readouts (MariTide late 2026, pemvidutide MASH IMPACT 2026), access programs (CMS GLP-1 Bridge launches July 1, 2026), rulemaking (FDA 503A bulk substances comment closes June 29, 2026), and pricing (IRA-negotiated semaglutide effective January 2027).