GLP-1

GLP-1 Supply Chain

Peptide API (SPPS) Capacity by Provider

Cumulative solid-phase peptide synthesis (SPPS) reactor capacity in liters by provider, 2022 through 2028E.

Sterile Fill-Finish Capacity by Site

Major sterile fill-finish sites for GLP-1 pen and cartridge production, ranked by approximate annual pen-equivalent capacity.

Cumulative CDMO + In-House Capex 2023 to 2027

Cumulative announced peptide-platform capex 2023 to 2027, stacked by participant. Lilly's in-house buildout dwarfs the rest; Novo's $16.5B Catalent deal is included.

Autoinjector Pen Supplier Share

Approximate share of pen-by-pen autoinjector supply for GLP-1 brands. Ypsomed (YPSN.SW) supplies Novo's full pen platform; Phillips-Medisize (private) is the principal Lilly supplier.

Ypsomed (42%)Phillips-Medisize (36%)Owen Mumford (8%)West Pharmaceutical Services (6%)Becton Dickinson (4%)Other (Gerresheimer, SHL, etc.) (4%)

FDA Shortage and Compounding Rulemaking Timeline

FDA shortage tracking for the four GLP-1 molecules under compounding, plus the April 2026 proposal to drop them from the 503B bulks list (comments close June 29, 2026).

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

Tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound)

Semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy)

Liraglutide (Saxenda)

Dulaglutide (Trulicity)

Dec 2022
Tirzepatide added to FDA shortage list (Mounjaro launch ramp)

Dec 2024
Tirzepatide shortage resolved by FDA

Feb 2025
Semaglutide shortage resolved by FDA

Apr 2026
FDA proposes removing semaglutide, tirzepatide, liraglutide from 503B bulk substances list

Jun 2026
Public comment period closes June 29, 2026

Compounded GLP-1 Shadow Market (Modeled Monthly Volume)

Modeled monthly compounded GLP-1 fills in non-traditional channels (503A pharmacies, telehealth 503Bs), peaking during the FDA shortages then declining.